The United Nations Security Council and the Rally ’Round the Flag Effect

Abstract

A principal agent model is used to test the hypothesis that when proposed uses of force attract the support of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, the rally in support of the American president increases significantly. Regression analysis is applied to rallies during all militarized interstate disputes from 1945 to 2001. Results show that UN Security Council support significantly increases the rally behind the president (by as many as 9 points in presidential approval), even after including an array of control variables. This finding is generally robust across most model specifications. This effect is unique among international institutions because other actions by the UN or regional security organizations do not significantly affect rallies. These findings provide new insight into how international institutions can matter and influence the foreign policies of states by affecting public opinion.

Politics and IMF Conditionality

“…Also see Chapman and Reiter 2004, Chapman 2007, Thompson 2006, and Fang 2008 See O'Neill 1996, Russett 1997, Strand and Rapkin 2011, and Weiss 2008. .…”

Coalitions of the willing? International backing and British public support for military action

“…International backing is valued particularly when it comes from supranational organisations. Chapman and Reiter (2004) find that "rally-round-the-flag" effects are stronger where the UN Security Council has sanctioned military action, but also that public approval is not necessarily boosted by a multilateral approach in the absence of Security Council support. This is consistent with surveys showing strong support for the UN and NATO, including widespread willingness to participate in peacekeeping operations under the auspices of those organisations (Kull & Destler, 1999;Page & Barabas, 2000).…”

Why seek international organisation approval under unipolarity? Averting issue linkage vs. appeasing Congress

“…12 One study, in particular, claims to have found concrete evidence that UNSC approval boosts US public support by magnifying the rally-'round-the-flag effect. 13 However, the coding of cases underlying that study is problematic, raising questions about the validity of the finding. 14 Recent survey data indicates that although IO approval somewhat increases support for armed intervention among US policy elites, it does not consistently increase mass public support.…”