Three experiments: The exploration of unknown unknowns in foresight

Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential

“…Moreover, events may appear 'out of the blue' without any apparent evidential basis in the present (Derbyshire and Wright, 2014). Some events may fall into the category of 'unknown unknowns' or ontological uncertainties (Ilmola and Rovenskaya, 2016).…”

Anticipating Alternative Futures for the Platform Economy

“…After the workshop, the actions were prioritized and their resilience analysed using robust portfolio modelling (RPM) (see e.g., Liesiö et al, 2008). RPM is a decision-support methodology used for analyzing multi-criteria portfolio problems (Ilmola & Rovenskaya, 2016;Lourenço et al, 2012). It uses standard decision-analysis models to capture the benefits of different options and option portfolios (i.e., option combinations), but also admits incomplete information about the parameters.…”

Ten principles for thinking about the future: a primer for environmental professionals

“…1). In contrast, futures research recognizes fundamental uncertainties in key drivers of change and the presence of "unknown unknowns" (Ilmola and Rovenskaya 2016), and explores a much wider range of alternative futures.…”