Thyroid Cancer Risk in Areas of Ukraine and Belarus Affected by the Chernobyl Accident

Jacob, Peter; Bogdanova, Tetiana; Buglova, E.; Chepurniy, M.; Demidchik, Yuri E.; Gavrilin, Yuri I; Kenigsberg, J; Meckbach, R.; Schotola, C.; Shinkarev, Sergei M.; Тronko, М.D.; Ulanovsky, A.; Vavilov, Sergey; Walsh, Linda

doi:10.1667/rr3479.1

Cited by 94 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…• The radiation risk parameters used are close to the quantities obtained in Jacob, et al (2006), Likhtarev, et al (2006a and . • The risk model is the simplest but quite popular generalized linear model of absolute risk with binary response (see below) that makes it possible to verify and compare the results with estimates obtained by the well-known program package EPICURE.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 58%

“…The current methods of risk estimation (see Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation, 2006;Jacob et al, 2006;Likhtarev et al, 2006a) take into account uncertainties related to health effects, but assume that the doses are known with perfect precision and accuracy, something that is not true (Kopecky et al, 2006;Likhtarev et al, 1993;Likhtarev et al, 2003;Ron and Hoffman, 1999). Although many attempts have been made to develop mathematical tools which take into account the dose uncertainty (see Carroll et al, 2006;Hofer, 2008;Kopecky et al, 2006;Li et al, 2007;Masiuk et al, 2008), the problem has yet to be solved in a satisfactory manner.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is our opinion that one of the reasons an accurate model is so hard to create is because the dose estimates are almost inevitably associated with a mixture of classical and Berkson errors (Reeves et al, 1998;Carroll et al, 2006;Li et al, 2007), which leads to difficulties in evaluating the influence of the mixed errors in the estimated dose on risk analysis, which is usually expressed in terms of relative (ERR) or absolute (EAR) risk (see Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation, 2006). One such example is the analysis of epidemiological investigations of thyroid cancer among children exposed to radioiodines in fallout from the Chornobyl accident (Jacob et al, 2006;Likhtarev et al, 2006a;Tronko et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Methods for Estimation of Radiation Risk in Epidemiological Studies Accounting for Classical and Berkson Errors in Doses

Kukush¹,

Shklyar²,

Masiuk³

et al. 2011

The International Journal of Biostatistics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

With a binary response Y, the dose-response model under consideration is logistic in flavor with pr(Y=1 | D) = R (1+R) By means of Parametric Full Maximum Likelihood and Regression Calibration (under the assumption that the data set of true doses has lognormal distribution), Nonparametric Full Maximum Likelihood, Nonparametric Regression Calibration, and by properly tuned SIMEX method we study the influence of measurement errors in thyroid dose on the estimates of λ 0 and EAR. The simulation study is presented based on a real sample from the epidemiological studies. The doses were reconstructed in the framework of the Ukrainian-American project on the investigation of Post-Chernobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine, and the underlying subpolulation was artificially enlarged in order to increase the statistical power. The true risk parameters were given by the values to earlier epidemiological studies, and then the binary response was simulated according to the dose-response model.-

show abstract

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 58%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Methods for Estimation of Radiation Risk in Epidemiological Studies Accounting for Classical and Berkson Errors in Doses

Kukush¹,

Shklyar²,

Masiuk³

et al. 2011

The International Journal of Biostatistics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…from the intake of 131 I (74,75) and 1.2-1.5 for external doses from radionuclides deposited on the ground (18,76,77) . Sources of uncertainties are fluctuations in the radionuclides concentration in foodstuffs produced at the same location, as well as difference in behaviours and dietary habits from one individual to another, and inter-person variability in the metabolic parameter values.…”

Section: Uncertainties In Dose Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radiation exposure to the population of Europe following the Chernobyl accident

Drozdovitch¹,

Bouville²,

Chobanova³

et al. 2007

Radiation Protection Dosimetry

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

On the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl accident an attempt has been made to evaluate the impact of the Chernobyl accident on the global burden of human cancer in Europe. This required the estimation of radiation doses in each of the 40 European countries. Dose estimation was based on the analysis and compilation of data either published in the scientific literature or provided by local experts. Considerable variability has been observed in exposure levels among the European populations. The average individual doses to the thyroid from the intake of 131 I for children aged 1 y were found to vary from $0.01 mGy in Portugal up to 750 mGy in Gomel Oblast (Belarus). Thyroid doses to adults were consistently lower than the doses received by young children. The average individual effective doses from external exposure and ingestion of long-lived radiocaesium accrued in the period 1986-2005 varied from $0 in Portugal to $10 mSv in Gomel Oblast (Belarus) and Bryansk Oblast (Russia). The uncertainties in the dose estimates were subjectively estimated on the basis of the availability and reliability of the radiation data that were used for dose reconstruction in each country.

show abstract

“…This was possible by comparing our results with thyroid dose estimates based on settlement-averaged results of direct measurements of 131 I in human thyroids performed in 1986 (Likhtarov et al, 1994) and evaluated later by Jacob et al (2006). Direct measurements of thyroid activities after the Chernobyl accident revealed a high variability of individual exposures compared to the results of deterministic model calculations of the mean thyroid exposures; e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Retrospective dosimetry of Iodine-131 exposures using Iodine-129 and Caesium-137 inventories in soils – A critical evaluation of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident in parts of Northern Ukraine

Michel

Daraoui

Górny

et al. 2015

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

a b s t r a c tThe radiation exposure of thyroid glands due to 131 I as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident was investigated retrospectively based on 129 I and 137 Cs inventories in soils in Northern Ukraine. To this end, soil samples from 60 settlements were investigated for 129 I, 127 I, and 137 Cs by AMS, ICP-MS and gammaspectrometry, respectively. Sampling was performed between 2004 und 2007.In those parts of Northern Ukraine investigated here the 129 I and 137 Cs inventories are well correlated, the variability of the individual 129 I/ 137 Cs ratios being, however, high. Both the 129 I and 137 Cs inventories in the individual 5 samples for each settlement allowed estimating the uncertainties of the inventories due to the variability of the radionuclide deposition and consequently of the retrospective dosimetry.Thyroid equivalent doses were calculated from the 129 I and the 137 Cs inventories using aggregated dose coefficients for 5-year old and 10-year-old children as well as for adults. The highest thyroid equivalent doses (calculated from 129 I inventories) were calculated for Wladimirowka with 30 Gy for 5-years-old children and 7 Gy for adults. In 35 settlements of contamination zone II the geometric mean of the thyroid equivalent doses was 2.0 Gy for 5-years-old children with a geometric standard deviation (GSD) of 3.0. For adults the geometric mean was 0.47 Gy also with a GSD of 3.0. In more than 25 settlements of contamination zone III the geometric means were 0.82 Gy for 5-years old children with a GSD of 1.8 and 0.21 Gy for adults (GSD 1.8).For 45 settlements, the results of the retrospective dosimetry could be compared with thyroid equivalent doses calculated using time-integrated 131 I activities of thyroids which were measured in 1986. Thus, a critical evaluation of the results was possible which demonstrated the general feasibility of the method, but also the associated uncertainties and limitations.

show abstract

Thyroid Cancer Risk in Areas of Ukraine and Belarus Affected by the Chernobyl Accident

Cited by 94 publications

References 15 publications

Methods for Estimation of Radiation Risk in Epidemiological Studies Accounting for Classical and Berkson Errors in Doses

Methods for Estimation of Radiation Risk in Epidemiological Studies Accounting for Classical and Berkson Errors in Doses

Radiation exposure to the population of Europe following the Chernobyl accident

Retrospective dosimetry of Iodine-131 exposures using Iodine-129 and Caesium-137 inventories in soils – A critical evaluation of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident in parts of Northern Ukraine

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About