To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood. We develop a compartmental model for assessing the communitywide impact of mask use by the general, asymptomatic public, a portion of which may be asymptomatically infectious. Model simulations, using data relevant to COVID-19 dynamics in the US states of New York and Washington, suggest that broad adoption of even relatively ineffective face masks may meaningfully reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and decrease peak hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, mask use decreases the effective transmission rate in nearly linear proportion to the product of mask effectiveness (as a fraction of potentially infectious contacts blocked) and coverage rate (as a fraction of the general population), while the impact on epidemiologic outcomes (death, hospitalizations) is highly nonlinear, indicating masks could synergize with other non-pharmaceutical measures. Notably, masks are found to be useful with respect to both preventing illness in healthy persons and preventing asymptomatic transmission. Hypothetical mask adoption scenarios, for Washington and New York state, suggest that immediate near universal (80%) adoption of moderately (50%) effective masks could prevent on the order of 17-45% of projected deaths over two months in New York, while decreasing the peak daily death rate by 34-58%, absent other changes in epidemic dynamics. Even very weak masks (20% effective) can still be useful if the underlying transmission rate is relatively low or decreasing: In Washington, where baseline transmission is much less intense, 80% adoption of such masks could reduce mortality by 24-65% (and peak deaths 15-69%), compared to 2-9% mortality reduction in New York (peak death reduction 9-18%). Our results suggest use of face masks by the general public is potentially of high value in curtailing community transmission and the burden of the pandemic. The community-wide benefits are likely to be greatest when face masks are used in conjunction with other non-pharmaceutical practices (such as social-distancing), and when adoption is nearly universal (nation-wide) and compliance is high.

Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.?

“…Further, we do not assume that the vaccine wanes during the one-year time period we would choose for the numerical simulations of our model. The model (2.1) is an extension of numerous deterministic models for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic, such as those in [4,11], by explicitly incorporating an imperfect anti-COVID-19 vaccine. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first deterministic model for COVID-19 transmission that explicitly incorporates an imperfect vaccine.…”

Associations of Stay-at-Home Order and Face-Masking Recommendation with Trends in Daily New Cases and Deaths of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 in the United States

“…The effects of masking on the epidemic of COVID-19 in the USA was simulated using the filtering efficacy of masks on influenza. 23,24 The influence of public intervention on COVID-19 the studies simulated the early implementation of SAHO. Therefore, using the population data of laboratory-confirmed cases, we simulated the potential outcomes of implementing SAHO and face-masking recommendation based on the piecewise log-linear were higher in New York than in the six neighboring states of New York (Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont), and higher in the neighboring states than other non-New York states (p < 0.001 for both).…”

Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): Modeling and Simulation of Control Strategies

“…To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face maskuse by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic. [14]. This paper considers the importance of face mask in the prevention of the disease.…”

“…They are found by searching research literature, official reports or by fitting the model to the available data. β(t) is the time dependent infectious contact rate, which has a exponentially decreasing structure [14]. The decrease is due to the prevention measures put into action by the government and good will of the people.…”