To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

Abstract

We explore the individual and institutional conditions and the climate information used to underpin decision-making for adaptation to high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios in a land resource management context. HECC refers to extreme projections with global annual temperature increases of over 4°C. We analyse whether HECC scenarios are used in the adaptation decision-making of stakeholders who will tackle the potential problem. We also explore whether the adaptation actions being considered are pertinent only to future climate change or whether other drivers and information types are used in decision-making (including Climatic Change (2017) Adaptation Scotland/SNIFFER, Edinburgh, Scotland non-climate drivers). We also address the role of knowledge uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability of occurrence and so they do not directly account for HECC within existing actions to address climate change. Such actions focus on incremental rather than transformative solutions in which non-climate drivers are at least as important, and in many cases more important, than climate change alone. This reflects the need to accommodate multiple concerns and low risk options (i.e. incremental change). Uncertainty in climate change information is not a significant barrier to decision-making and stakeholders indicated little need for more climate information in support of adaptation decision-making. There is, however, an identified need for more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts under HECC scenarios. The outcomes of this study provide evidence to assist in contextualising climate change information by creating usable, cross-sectoral, decision-centred information.

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

“…Results presented here are in line with previous analysis for the Scottish case (Dunn et al 2017) and reinforce the notion that tailored, cross-sectoral approaches are still not the norm, although perceived as necessary to support adaptation. For example, guidance on the impacts of nonclimate factors, showing sector-specific implications (Bizikova et al 2009), is needed.…”

“…In line with Dunn et al (2017), four key themes were explored in the interviews: (1) the use of climate change information in adaptation-related decision-making processes; (2) the limitations and challenges of using climate change and HECC information; (3) the implications of uncertainty for adaptation; and (4) the use of non-climate information and its influence in adaptation-related decision-making processes. Additionally, the number and diversity of interviewees allowed exploring the implications of the 1.5°C Paris target vis-à-vis HECC scenarios, for adaptation-related decisionmaking.…”

“…With a focus on land resource management, this case study assessed the agriculture, forestry, water, and tourism sectors, along with the multi-scale issue of supply chains for food and beverages (Dunn et al 2017). …”

“…Partial results of this research were previously published in Dunn et al (2017), focusing on how land resource managers in Scotland are preparing to deal with HECC scenarios. The present paper expands and complements that previous analysis with work from three additional case studies (EU, Hungary, and Portugal) and draws conclusions for a wider set of sectors, scales, and decisionmaking processes…”

“…Climate-centred frameworks assume that adaptation-related decisions are most importantly influenced by climate projections and do not recognise that climate is only one factor, among many others, affecting those decisions. In contrast, decision-centred adaptation puts climate into perspective within the decision-making context and considers all of the contributing factors, as for example, economic priorities, environmental issues, political and social factors, demographics, and regulation (Dunn et al 2017). These approaches seem to play a role in affecting the way decisionmakers choose to adapt, for example, when considering incremental versus transformative changes (Dunn et al 2017).…”