Toward Forecasting Global Economic Dynamics of the Forthcoming Years

Akaev, Askar; Korotayev, Andrey V.

doi:10.18288/1994-5124-2017-1-01

Cited by 5 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…In this article, the timeline is based on an interpretation where the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath represent the final phase of the fifth K-wave, starting the transformation that is leading to a growth phase of the sixth wave. This view has been supported in the recent literature (e.g., Akaev and Korotayev 2016; Moody and Nogrady 2010; Nefiodow 2017; Wilenius and Kurki 2012). However, considering the plethora of interpretations especially considering the timing of the waves, it must be acknowledged that many key authors in the long-wave literature use a significantly different way to present the cycles (e.g., Devezas 2010; Devezas et al 2005; Mager 1987).…”

Section: Futures Studies In the Context Of The Long-wave Theorymentioning

confidence: 56%

The Long-Waves and the Evolution of Futures Practice and Theory

Kurki

2018

World Futures Review

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Futures studies explore potential consequences of present day actions, and help in formulating desirable visions of the future, to guide action in the present. Although these aims have remained roughly the same, the practices and implicit theories supporting them have varied through time. This article looks at the evolution of futures through the framework of the long-wave theory, discussing the results of thematic interviews of futures professionals in three geographic areas: Finland, South Korea, and California. The long-wave theory sees societies changing in forty to sixty year cycles driven by technological development, around which social practices evolve. There have been five socio-technical waves since 1780s. Each wave brought about a set of policies and social models, and a shared mind-set. In the fourth wave, futures was mostly practiced with the spirit of the postwar economic expansion, techno-optimism, and linear worldview, with futures methods that reflected trust in scientific authority, and aimed at forecasting the most probable outcomes for the future. The fifth wave was defined by uncertainty, which was managed by using strategy tools like scenarios that prepared for various different short- and mid-term outcomes. For the sixth wave, futures practitioners are divided between the expertled quasi-predictive model that dominates especially in the technology forecasting work, and the systemic perspective, which questions the centrally organized process-view to futures. New methods, often developed outside the field, have in many ways inspired and shaped the intellectual space in which the evolution of both practices and theory may occur in the future.

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Section: Futures Studies In the Context Of The Long-wave Theorymentioning

confidence: 56%

The Long-Waves and the Evolution of Futures Practice and Theory

Kurki

2018

World Futures Review

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“…Starting from January 24, 2020, the virus was detected in all administrative divisions of China at the provincial level [2,3]. The post-crisis depression that engulfed developed countries after 2008-2009 crisis, as previously predicted, was prolonged and lasted until 2018-2020, when a new increase in world production was expected due to the mass development and introduction of convergent technologies of the 6th Technological Order, the development of alternative sources of «clean energy» with a balanced and rational use of hydrocarbon energy resources -oil and gas [4]. The disruption of global logistics chains leads to a drop in global trade volumes and a slowdown in economic growth, provoking the sociotechnical crisis phenomena caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 76%

System Analysis and Forecasting of the Relationship Between Economic Factors and the Epidemic Process COVID-19 to Optimize International Transport Communications in the Context of a Pandemic

Davidovsky¹

2020

Proceedings of the Research Technologies of Pandemic Coronavirus Impact (RTCOV 2020)

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Has been presents the results of system analysis and short-term forecasting of the impact of economic factors on the development of the epidemic process COVID-19 and assessment of opportunities of optimization of transport communications and logistics cooperation between countries with different socioeconomic and demographic development, as well as geographical position in the global pandemic COVID-19. A kinetic model of the development of the epidemic process caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, represented by a system of linear differential equations, is developed. As a result of the study of this mathematical model, the conditions for stabilization and limitation of the epidemic process are obtained. Multiple linear regression models have been developed that characterize the dynamics of morbidity and survival of patients in the epidemic process, taking into account such economic indicators as the price of a barrel of Brent oil, one Troy ounce of gold and silver, bitcoin, the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan to the Russian ruble, the dollar to the Russian ruble, the Chinese yuan to the dollar. Conducted research for a number of countries, including Australia,

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“…The lowest point of the global economic downturn was reached in 2017-2018, and then a new acceleration of the world economy growth will begin on the upward wave of the sixth big cycle of Kondratiev (2018Kondratiev ( -2050. This rise will depend on the development of the sixth technological mode, the core of which is created using NBIC convergence (that is, the joint use of nano, bio, information and cognitive technologies) [2]. Global economic and technological crises are impulses for further development, requiring the implementation of basic innovations of the era.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Domestic and foreign scientists pay attention to the problems of developing technological structures and their components: Akayev A. [2], Vasilenko V. [6], Zgurovsky M. [7], Korotaev A. [2], Grinin L. [4].…”

Section: Brief Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[2], Vasilenko V. [6], Zgurovsky M. [7], Korotaev A. [2], Grinin L. [4]. Modern technological directions of development: NBIC, GRAIN, MANBRIC, as vectors of innovative development and the formation of competitiveness at the macro and micro levels, are covered in the scientific works of Jotterend F. [3], Grinin L. [4; 5], Korotaev A.…”

Section: Brief Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Competitive Advantage Management enterprises with a focus on NBIC components

Lehominova,

Dymenko*,

Romashchenko

et al. 2019

IJITEE

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The article developed the conceptual framework for managing the competitive advantages of an enterprise with a position of a holistic approach with NBIC components, which corresponds to the tendency to enter to the sixth technological order. The development of priority technological areas is argued, which will lead to breakthrough strategies of the enterprise due to the implementation of high technology in the economic and organizational activities. The most important characteristics of the development of the business environment, as factors of influence on the activation of innovative development of the enterprise in order to increase its competitiveness, are revealed. The main clusters of the future economy of Ukraine are considered and the priority of their contribution to economic growth is determined. The NBIC component block is defined as a competitive strategy that ensures the sustainable development of the enterprise. The indicators characterizing each of the convergent NBIC components have been developed: nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, information and cognitive technologies. A strategy for managing the company's competitive advantages has been developed. The article developed the conceptual framework for managing the competitive advantages of an enterprise with a position of a holistic approach with NBIC components, which corresponds to the tendency to enter the sixth technological order. The development of priority technological areas is argued, which will lead to breakthrough strategies of the enterprise due to the implementation of high technology in the economic and organizational activities. The most important characteristics of the development of the business environment, as factors of influence on the activation of innovative development of the enterprise in order to increase its competitiveness, are revealed. The main clusters of the future economy of Ukraine are considered and the priority of their contribution to economic growth is determined. The NBIC component block is defined as a competitive strategy that ensures the sustainable development of the enterprise. The indicators characterizing each of the convergent NBIC components have been developed: nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, information and cognitive technologies. Nano-, Bio-, Info-, Cogno-components are determined by indicators: the level of use of nanotechnology in telecommunication equipment and business processes; level of implementation of Nano-development; safety level of technology use for human health; the level of effectiveness of actions to protect the environment; the level of reduction of harm to humans from radiation; the presence of self-organization in the enterprise; the introduction of artificial intelligence in the organizational structure of the enterprise; level of use of highspeed technologies NGN, POST-NGN; implementation of innovative standards of information support activities; implementation of information and software in business process management; level of cognitive flexibility of senior and middle managers; staff complementarity level. A strategy for managing the company's competitive advantages has been developed.

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Toward Forecasting Global Economic Dynamics of the Forthcoming Years

Cited by 5 publications

References 8 publications

The Long-Waves and the Evolution of Futures Practice and Theory

The Long-Waves and the Evolution of Futures Practice and Theory

System Analysis and Forecasting of the Relationship Between Economic Factors and the Epidemic Process COVID-19 to Optimize International Transport Communications in the Context of a Pandemic

Competitive Advantage Management enterprises with a focus on NBIC components

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