Towards 25,000 TEU vessels? A comparative economic analysis of ultra-large containership sizes under different market and operational conditions

Ge, Jiawei; Zhu, Meiling; Sha, Mei; Notteboom, Theo; Shi, Wenming; Wang, Xuefeng

doi:10.1057/s41278-019-00136-4

Cited by 24 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Wei and Hui ( 2019 ) brings up the issue that sea traffic has to be considered besides inland traffic. Recently Ge et al ( 2019 ) evaluated the economic, operational, and environmental conditions and expectations shipping companies are likely to push the ultra-large containership (ULCS) from 18,000–20,000 TEU to 25,000 TEU and concluded that economies of scale are achieved at 25,000 TEU, barring events of low freight rates and low load factors.…”

Section: Factors That Affect the Growth Trend Of Large Fullcontainersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cargo demand between shipping endpoints impacts maritime transport. In the outcome of the mentioned research, Ge et al ( 2019 ), the load factor is affected by fleet capacity and traffic volume. Thus, decreases in traffic volume impact load factors and is likely to lead to scenarios different from those forecasted.…”

Section: Factors That Affect the Growth Trend Of Large Fullcontainersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Looking into the future ten years later: big full containerships and their arrival to south American ports

2021

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Since 2006, when the Emma Maersk broke into the world of shipping, the growth in containership size has remained a continuous trend.For the last 14 years, since 2006, the enlargement of fullcontainerships size has remained a continuous trend since Emma Maersk broke into the world of shipping. This process - that also affected north-south trades - has crucial implications in the shipping business, particularly in the planning of ports and its services and related activities. This paper analyses the global increase in vessel size and forecasts larger vessels’ arrival to South American coasts. The paper analyses evidence since 2006 to understand the factors behind the trend for bigger ships (fleets between 18,000 and 24,000 TEU) and introduce a validated methodology for the prediction of the size of container ships. Experts presented a consensus vision in which factors associated with infrastructure, economics, technology, and the environment play a crucial role in driving the trend. Next, the paper presents a methodology for forecasting the size of containerships and applies it to Latin America’s trade. The models include two alternative thresholds for the dependent variables (1310 ft LOA and 18,000 TEU of nominal capacity) that are controlled by cascading effect (i.e., the size gap between Latin America and the world’s main trade routes), and the economic activity at the destination countries (represented by port activity). Finally, the conclusions highlight the forecast’s call to take action on infrastructure planning and investments, analyzing issues such as “economies of scale,” concentration, or entry barriers. Overall, the paper warns about the importance of efficient medium-term planning in the port industry to maximize its economic impact.

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Section: Factors That Affect the Growth Trend Of Large Fullcontainersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Factors That Affect the Growth Trend Of Large Fullcontainersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Looking into the future ten years later: big full containerships and their arrival to south American ports

2021

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“…Each selected year is a turning point for the maritime and ports sector, and especially for container shipping. The year 1996 marked the introduction of the first post-Panamax container vessel which triggered consecutive waves of scale increases in ship size (Cullinane and Khanna, 2000;Ge et al, 2019). The mid 1990s also gave birth to the first strategic alliances among container carriers on the main east-west trade lanes .…”

Section: Regional and Temporal Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting port system delineation through an analysis of maritime interdependencies among seaports

Ducruet¹,

Notteboom

2020

GeoJournal

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A port system is a system of two or more ports, located in proximity within a given area. In literature, various geographical and functional scales have been identified ranging from complete coastlines to the notions of a 'range' and a 'multi-port gateway region'. Not only does the spatial scale create confusion on the true functional delineation of port systems, but it also complicates a clear understanding of the relational mechanisms at stake within these port systems. This paper revisits existing approaches to and empirical delineations of port systems.Maritime network analysis techniques are deployed to understand hierarchies and interdependencies among nodes of container port systems and sub-systems in North Europe and Northeast Asia. The results provide additional insights on how ports interact from a maritime services' perspectives and demonstrate whether or not ports which are traditionally considered as belonging to the same port system can in reality be considered forming a fully integrated port system.

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“…Over the last two decades, the demand for maritime container transport has increased significantly, leading to major changes in the size of the maritime container fleet and the development of ports and terminals. In reviewing the available literature [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9], we found that in the current market situation, ship owners are deciding to build larger and larger container ships that allow them to operate at lower transportation costs. The largest container ship size has evolved from about 5500 TEU in 1995 to 24,000 TEU in 2020.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the coming years, ships of 25,000 TEU and above are expected. However, according to Ge, Zhu, Sha, Notteboom, Shi and Wang [9], the economic justification for a further increase in ship size depends largely on current and future conditions in the container shipping market, environmental requirements and considerations, and the adaptability of ports and terminals. In this sense, large ships pose a major challenge even in the world's largest container ports, as they require large terminal capacities and highly efficient handling equipment to handle thousands of containers within a short time window.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simulation Approach to the Definition of the Subsystems Parameters in Small Container Terminals

Stojaković

Twrdy

2021

JMSE

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This article deals with the extremely difficult problem faced by a large number of smaller ports: how to enable small container terminals to simultaneously receive two ships of post-Panamax size, and at the same time provide effective transshipment operations on an individual terminal subsystem, which would enable the fast turnaround of the ship in port and at the same time provide the port the possibility to increase annual traffic. For this purpose, a simulation approach was used in a hypothetical small size container terminal. The performed simulations covered all the berth-yard-berth operations focusing on the correct allocation of transfer mechanization to ensure optimal results on the sea side of the terminal. The results obtained were used to define the key parameters on the basis of which a Decision Support Tool was created. The aim of the Decision Support Tool is to help port operators to identify their current problems quickly and effectively and to give them an insight into the measures that need to be implemented to accommodate two post-Panamax ships at the terminal at the same time.

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Towards 25,000 TEU vessels? A comparative economic analysis of ultra-large containership sizes under different market and operational conditions

Cited by 24 publications

References 31 publications

Looking into the future ten years later: big full containerships and their arrival to south American ports

Looking into the future ten years later: big full containerships and their arrival to south American ports

Revisiting port system delineation through an analysis of maritime interdependencies among seaports

A Simulation Approach to the Definition of the Subsystems Parameters in Small Container Terminals

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