Towards Process-based Range Modeling of Many Species

Evans, Margaret E. K.; Merow, Cory; Record, Sydne; McMahon, Sean M.; Enquist, Brian J.

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2016.08.005

Cited by 142 publications

(151 citation statements)

References 99 publications

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“…Hierarchical modelling frameworks are a promising avenue to address this challenge in species distribution modelling, in which the scale of interactions between environment and organisms determines the type of data fed into the models (Diez & Pulliam ; Evans et al . ). With this study we promote the capabilities of matrix population modelling in examining predictions of correlative SDMs and more broadly, demography–environment relationships, while we admit that there is much room for further improvement of both SDMs and MPMs in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants

et al. 2017

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Correlative species distribution models are based on the observed relationship between species’ occurrence and macroclimate or other environmental variables. In climates predicted less favourable populations are expected to decline, and in favourable climates they are expected to persist. However, little comparative empirical support exists for a relationship between predicted climate suitability and population performance. We found that the performance of 93 populations of 34 plant species worldwide – as measured by in situ population growth rate, its temporal variation and extinction risk – was not correlated with climate suitability. However, correlations of demographic processes underpinning population performance with climate suitability indicated both resistance and vulnerability pathways of population responses to climate: in less suitable climates, plants experienced greater retrogression (resistance pathway) and greater variability in some demographic rates (vulnerability pathway). While a range of demographic strategies occur within species’ climatic niches, demographic strategies are more constrained in climates predicted to be less suitable.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants

et al. 2017

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“…Hence, should a single environmental variable change, diversity in the relevant trait should decrease, but with little effect on other traits. This would allow testing for more complex relationships between traits and niche characteristics and would facilitate the development of process-based SDMs for many species (Evans et al, 2016). Our approach, linking traits and demographically derived niches, is complementary to the recent development of physiological niche models that predict range dynamics (e.g., Higgins et al, 2012;Kearney & Porter, 2009).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The niche concept is also frequently invoked as the basis for species distribution modelling and to understand the shifts of species ranges under environmental change (Ehrlén & Morris, 2015;Guisan & Thuiller, 2005). Despite the central role of Hutchinson's niche framework for theoretical and applied ecology, our understanding of what determines interspecific variation in Hutchinsonian niches remains limited (Evans, Merow, Record, McMahon, & Enquist, 2016;Holt, 2009). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Functional traits explain the Hutchinsonian niches of plant species

Treurnicht

Pagel

Tonnabel

et al. 2019

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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Aim:The Hutchinsonian niche is a foundational concept in ecology and evolutionary biology that describes fundamental characteristics of any species: the global maximum population growth rate (r max ); the niche optimum (the environment for which r max is reached); and the niche width (the environmental range for which intrinsic population growth rates are positive). We examine whether these characteristics are related to inter-and intraspecific variation in functional traits.Location: Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. Time period: Present day.Major taxa studied: Twenty-six plant species (Proteaceae). Methods:We measured leaf, plant-architectural and seed traits across species geographical ranges. We then examined how species-mean traits are related to demographically derived niche characteristics of r max , in addition to niche optima and widths in five environmental dimensions, and how intraspecific trait variation is related to niche widths. Results:Interspecific trait variation generally exceeded range-wide intraspecific trait variation. Species-mean trait values were associated with variation in r max (R 2 = 0.27) but were more strongly related to niche optima (mean R 2 = 0.56). These relationships generally matched trait-environment associations described in the literature. Both species-mean traits and intraspecific trait variability were strongly related to niche widths (R 2 = 0.66 and 0.59, respectively). Moreover, niche widths increased with intraspecific trait variability. Overall, the different niche characteristics were associated with few, largely non-overlapping sets of traits. Main conclusions:Our study relating functional traits to Hutchinsonian niches demonstrates that key demographic properties of species relate to few traits with relatively strong effects. Our results further support the hypothesis that intraspecific trait variation increases species niche widths. Given that niche characteristics were related to distinct sets of traits, different aspects of environmental change might affect axes of trait variation independently. Trait-based studies of Hutchinsonian | 535 TREURNICHT ET al.

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“…, Evans et al. ). For example, one might determine experimentally the effect of temperature on development of a trait whose values determine one or more demographic rates in the model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mechanistic (or process‐based) distribution models attempt to formulate the niche in terms of the causal effects of climate and other environmental factors on functional traits that affect demography and therefore distribution (Kearney and Porter , Evans et al. ). “Forward” models are developed by empirical parameterization of the underlying process rather than by calibration against distribution data (Chapman et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion

Chapman

Scalone

Štefanić

et al. 2017

Ecology

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Abstract. Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual populations. Ignoring such effects could substantially underestimate the extent and impact of invasions.

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Towards Process-based Range Modeling of Many Species

Cited by 142 publications

References 99 publications

Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants

Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants

Functional traits explain the Hutchinsonian niches of plant species

Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion

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