Towards the prediction of multi-year to decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere

Power, Scott B.; Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Chung, Christine; Colman, Robert; Kharin, Viatcheslav; Boer, G. J.; Gergis, Joëlle; Henley, Benjamin J.; McGregor, Shayne; Arblaster, Julie M.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Liguori, Giovanni

doi:10.22498/pages.25.1.32

Cited by 6 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(57 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In line with the great volume of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans, the South Pacific Ocean exhibits prominent decadal climate variability (e.g., Reason 2000). That said, our understanding of Pacific and in particular South Pacific decadal variability and predictability has been limited, despite this being an emerging area of substantial interest and active research (Meehl et al 2014;Holbrook et al 2014;Power et al 2017). The lack of consistent long-term observations has in part led to less attention being drawn to the South Pacific.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Shakun and Shaman (2009) found that the PDO and SPDO in the North and South Pacific are qualitatively very similar on interdecadal time scales. In addition, Power et al (1999) and Folland et al (2002) introduced the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) in order to characterize the decadal variability over the entire Pacific basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From the ocean perspective, some studies also emphasize the importance of oceanic dynamics to decadal variability in the South Pacific (Holbrook and Bindoff 1997;Linsley et al 2000;Power and Colman 2006;McGregor et al 2007;O'Kane et al 2014b;Sloyan andO'Kane 2015, Chung et al 2017). For example, in a numerical modeling study, Holbrook et al (2011) showed that long baroclinic Rossby waves provided an important mechanism for modulating East Australian Current (EAC) transports and corresponding observed sea level variations in Sydney Harbour on ENSO to decadal time scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given the importance of decadal climate variability and gaps in our current knowledge (Holbrook et al 2014), understanding the mechanisms and predictability of the IPO-related variability therefore has great societal value. Some studies argue that long-term climate predictability is limited by the effects of high-frequency processes (Boer 2004;Power and Colman 2006;Frederiksen et al 2016), while others argue that the main limitation is from the growth of initial errors due to flow instabilities (e.g., Griffies and Bryan 1997;Boer 2000;Yang et al 2008;Branstator et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While many studies on potential predictability exist in the literature, most have a tropics-North Pacific focus. Notable studies include those on climate variability (Newman et al 2003;Chen et al 2004;Alexander et al 2008), sea surface temperature (Newman 2007;Frederiksen et al 2016), atmospheric circulation (Lou et al 2017), precipitation (Ying et al 2018), ocean heat content (Li et al 2017), and ocean subsurface temperatures (Power and Colman 2006), to give only a few examples. In addition, first-order autoregressive (AR1) models (Boer 2000;Newman et al 2003), linear inverse models (Newman 2007;Alexander et al 2008;Newman et al 2011Newman et al , 2016, decadal decomposition methods (Frederiksen et al 2016;Lou et al 2017;Ying et al 2018), and other statistical or physical models have also been applied to quantify the potential predictability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability

2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO) characterizes the Southern Hemisphere contribution to the Pacific-wide interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and is analogous to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) centered in the North Pacific. In this study, upper ocean variability and potential predictability of the SPDO is examined in HadISST data and an atmosphere-forced ocean general circulation model. The potential predictability of the IPO-related variability is investigated in terms of both the fractional contribution made by the decadal component in the South, tropical and North Pacific Oceans and in terms of a doubly integrated first-order autoregressive (AR1) model. Despite explaining a smaller fraction of the total variance, we find larger potential predictability of the SPDO relative to the PDO. We identify distinct local drivers in the western subtropical South Pacific, where nonlinear baroclinic Rossby wave–topographic interactions act to low-pass filter decadal variability. In particular, we show that the Kermadec Ridge in the southwest Pacific enhances the decadal signature more prominently than anywhere else in the Pacific basin. Applying the doubly integrated AR1 model, we demonstrate that variability associated with the Pacific–South American pattern is a critically important atmospheric driver of the SPDO via a reddening process analogous to the relationship between the Aleutian low and PDO in the North Pacific—albeit that the relationship in the South Pacific appears to be even stronger. Our results point to the largely unrecognized importance of South Pacific processes as a key source of decadal variability and predictability.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability

2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Understanding the links between climate feedbacks, variability and change using a two-layer energy balance model

Colman

Soldatenko

2020

Clim Dyn

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Your article is protected by copyright and all rights are held exclusively by Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. This e-offprint is for personal use only and shall not be self-archived in electronic repositories. If you wish to self-archive your article, please use the accepted manuscript version for posting on your own website. You may further deposit the accepted manuscript version in any repository, provided it is only made publicly available 12 months after official publication or later and provided acknowledgement is given to the original source of publication and a link is inserted to the published article on Springer's website. The link must be accompanied by the following text: "The final publication is available at link.springer.com".

show abstract

Towards the prediction of multi-year to decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere

Cited by 6 publications

References 48 publications

South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability

South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability

Understanding the links between climate feedbacks, variability and change using a two-layer energy balance model

Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About