Trade-off between intensity and frequency of global tropical cyclones

Kang, Nam-Young; Elsner, James B.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2646

Cited by 82 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Meanwhile, global-average LMW is increased during the mid-Pliocene and mean TC duration is longer, leading to more destructive TCs in terms of the power dissipation index (PDI) (19), especially over the Northern Hemisphere (Table 1). This result is in broad agreement with other results that warming might reduce TC genesis, while the number of the most intense events increases (20,21). Moreover, CAM4 depicts a migration of the location of the peak intensity from the deep tropics during the mid-Pliocene, as well as TC genesis and tracks ( Fig.…”

Section: Significancesupporting

confidence: 80%

“…These metrics are insensitive to the midPliocene SST patterns, although there are regional differences in the magnitude and statistical power. The modeled mid-Pliocene TC characteristics share similarities with the observed TC behavior in recent decades (4,5,20,21), as well as most future projections (1, 3), potentially providing a window into the potential TC activity that may be expected in a warmer world. (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 69%

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Enhanced intensity of global tropical cyclones during the mid-Pliocene warm period

Yan

Wei

Korty

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Given the threats that tropical cyclones (TC) pose to people and infrastructure, there is significant interest in how the climatology of these storms may change with climate. The global historical record has been extensively examined, but it is short and plagued with recurring questions about its homogeneity, limiting its effectiveness at assessing how TCs vary with climate. Past warm intervals provide an opportunity to quantify TC behavior in a warmer-than-present world. Here, we use a TC-resolving (∼25 km) global atmospheric model to investigate TC activity during the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264−3.025 Ma) that shares similarities with projections of future climate. Two experiments, one driven by the reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the other by the SSTs from an ensemble of mid-Pliocene simulations, consistently predict enhanced global-average peak TC intensity during the mid-Pliocene coupled with longer duration, increased power dissipation, and a poleward migration of the location of peak intensity. The simulations are similar to global TC changes observed during recent global warming, as well as those of many future projections, providing a window into the potential TC activity that may be expected in a warmer world. Changes to power dissipation and TC frequency, especially in the Pacific, are sensitive to the different SST patterns, which could affect the viability of the role of TCs as a factor for maintaining a reduced zonal SST gradient during the Pliocene, as recently hypothesized.mid-Pliocene | tropical cyclone | TC-resolving climate modeling T ropical cyclones (TCs), one of the most serious natural hazards, pose significant threats to people and infrastructure in coastal regions worldwide. Both theory and modeling studies indicate that mean TC intensity and the frequency of the most intense TCs will likely increase with upward shifts in global temperatures (1-3), and there is evidence for past and projected changes in the latitude of peak TC intensity and TC hazard exposure (4, 5). Studies of how TCs respond to simulations of periods with different climate characteristics in Earth's history may complement these efforts and offer opportunities to better comprehend the processes involved through more varied external forcing.The mid-Pliocene (3.264−3.025 Ma) represents the most recent period of prolonged global warmth on a geological timescale (6). It features a continental configuration similar to present-day and higher CO 2 levels and arguably provides a potential analog to future greenhouse gas conditions. Benefiting from the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project (7-10) and Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) (11), our knowledge on the thermal structure of the mid-Pliocene ocean is considerably improved. The latest PRISM4 reconstruction (10, 12) indicates stable temperature in the equatorial western Pacific and significant warming in the eastern part during the mid-Pliocene, whereas the PlioMIP models (13) predict higher temperatures (...

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Section: Significancesupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 69%

Enhanced intensity of global tropical cyclones during the mid-Pliocene warm period

Yan

Wei

Korty

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…5 Yet, even if the change in frequency of cyclones globally is not currently identifiable, there is increasingly convincing evidence of increased intensity of cyclonic activity since the mid 1970s (Emanuel, 2005). More recent work continues a step further and argues there is an observed trade-off between intensity and frequency of cyclones (Kang and Elsner, 2015). This work identifies decreased frequency but increased intensity of cyclones on a global scale.…”

Section: Climate Change and Increasing Disaster Risk In Tuvalumentioning

confidence: 83%

To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island

Noy

2017

CESifo Economic Studies

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.

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“…Precipitation in recent typhoons has increased dramatically due most likely to climate change impact. Climate change can also affect the frequency of occurrence and intensity of typhoons (Kang and Elsner 2015), as well as sea level rise, and hence storm surge and coastal inundation. To better protect coastal cities such as Kaohsiung, Tainan, and others along the west coast of Taiwan, it is important to produce risk-based coastal inundation maps which include the storm surge and coastal inundation effects, inland flooding, precipitation, climate change, and sea level rise.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Storm Surge and Inundation Along the Taiwan Coast During Typhoons Fanapi in 2010 and Soulik in 2013

Sheng¹,

Paramygin²,

Terng³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Taiwan is subjected to significant storm surges, waves, and coastal inundation during frequent tropical cyclones. Along the west coast, with gentler bathymetric slopes, storm surges often cause significant coastal inundation. Along the east coast with steep bathymetric slopes, waves can contribute significantly to the storm surge in the form of wave setup. To examine the importance of waves in storm surges and quantify the significance of coastal inundation, this paper presents numerical simulations of storm surge and coastal inundation during two major typhoons, Fanapi in 2010 and Soulik in 2013, which impacted the southwest and northeast coasts of Taiwan, respectively. The simulations were conducted with an integrated surge-wave modeling system using a large coastal model domain wrapped around the island of Taiwan, with a grid resolution of 50 -300 m. During Fanapi, the simulated storm surge and coastal inundation near Kaohsiung are not as accurate as those obtained using a smaller coastal domain with finer resolution (40 -150 m). During Soulik, the model simulations show that wave setup contributed significantly (up to 20%) to the peak storm surge along the northeast coast of Taiwan. Three-D model simulations yield more accurate water level results and significant vertical variations in horizontal velocity at stations where wave-surge interaction is more pronounced. The simulated storm surge generally agreed well with the observed data at nearly 40 stations.

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Trade-off between intensity and frequency of global tropical cyclones

Cited by 82 publications

References 16 publications

Enhanced intensity of global tropical cyclones during the mid-Pliocene warm period

Enhanced intensity of global tropical cyclones during the mid-Pliocene warm period

To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island

Simulating Storm Surge and Inundation Along the Taiwan Coast During Typhoons Fanapi in 2010 and Soulik in 2013

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