Translation of Ensemble Weather Forecasts into Probabilistic Air Traffic Capacity Impact

Abstract

Today's trend in probabilistic weather forecasting is toward utilizing ensemble prediction systems. In the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), ensemble-based weather forecasting will be a common practice. Therefore, this paper explores a novel approach of using highresolution, ensemble-based numerical weather prediction model data for weather-related, probabilistic aviation impact forecasting. The concept represents a paradigm shift from "creating ensembles of weather information" (e.g., maps of predicted weather hazard intensity) to "developing ensembles of aviation-relevant information" (maps of potential throughput as measured by the available flow capacity ratio), which entails a translation of weather forecasts into predictions of reduced airspace capacity. The proof-of-concept is exemplified by focusing on convective storms; however, in principal, the approach may be applicable to other aviation hazards, like turbulence, icing, or ceiling and visibility. The concept is most pertinent to strategic en route traffic flow management, but it also applies to terminal area applications. A probabilistic approach is appropriate for strategic planning horizons, for which deterministic weather forecasts are significantly less accurate and an ensemble of forecasts may provide guidance about the weather (and impact) uncertainty.

Probabilistic 0–1-h Convective Initiation Nowcasts that Combine Geostationary Satellite Observations and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Data

“…Static thresholds are useful yet scoring a convective object (i.e., an individual cumulus cloud) typically only provides a ''yes'' or ''no'' CI nowcast of a pending new storm. Probabilistic forecasts also provide useful information on the uncertainty of the event (Dance et al 2010;Steiner et al 2010). Probabilistic forecasts also provide useful information on the uncertainty of the event (Dance et al 2010;Steiner et al 2010).…”

Estimativa do impacto das condições meteorológicas sobre a carga de trabalho dos controladores de tráfego aéreo na TMA-SP

“…Nessa mesma linha, para Klein et al (2009), as condições de tempo e a demanda por tráfego aeŕeo nunca devem ser consideradas separadamente, quando se analisa a ocorrencia de impacto operacional nos aeroportos. Steiner et al (2010) exploram uma nova abordagem para o uso de dados de modelo de previsão numeŕica de alta resoluçaõ no intuito de prever impactos probabilıśticos para a aviaçaõ relacionados às condições de tempo.…”

Stochastic analysis of fuel consumption in aircraft cruise subject to along-track wind uncertainty

“…Clarke et al [6] develop a methodology to study airspace capacity in the presence of weather uncertainty and formulates a stochastic dynamic programming algorithm for traffic flow management. Kim et al [7] consider different sources of uncertainty (wind and severe weather among them) and derive http [10], where the translation of ensemble weather forecasts into probabilistic air traffic capacity impact is described. An analysis of wind-optimal cruise trajectories using ensemble probabilistic forecasts and a robust optimal control methodology is performed in Gonzalez-Arribas et al [9].…”