Transmission roles of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases: a modelling study

Abstract

The data we used in the analysis contains the age and COVID-19 symptom onset/disease confirmation dates of each case. It is possible to reveal the patients' identities by linking this individual-level information to other sources such as local media coverage or social media release. Therefore, the data were not made publicly available.However, we will provide de-identified data upon request for research purposes (Dr.

Looking under the lamp-post: quantifying the performance of contact tracing in the United States during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

“…We do not account for asymptomatic transmission, again making our estimates an upper bound. The percent of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is estimated to be anywhere between 1.6% and 56.5% [90][91][92][93][94][95][96], with a these cases having a relative reduced infectiousness of 0 to 62% [90][91][92][93][94][95][96][97]. This would mean our estimated 1.65% of transmission pairs identified with PCR testing could be as low as 0.9%, assuming no asymptomatic index cases are identified.…”

Social mixing and network characteristics of COVID-19 patients before and after widespread interventions: A population-based study

“…After that, we randomly added (from its neighbours) or pruned these age-indexed contacts according to the real-time contact vector of age group with different age groups, which was randomly generated from the multinomial mass with the summation of row of as the total number of contacts and the normalised row of as the incident rate. In particular, if the infector did not connect to any person in some age groups among the pre-specified social network, we repeated the above step until the corresponding real-time contact numbers also meet zero. Infection risk may associate with age [12, 13]. Thus, we assumed an age-specific susceptibility ) (see in the Supplementary Material, ) according to a previous study [12] and a time-dependent rate of transmissibility (T) from symptom [8] (i.e.…”

“…In particular, if the infector did not connect to any person in some age groups among the pre-specified social network, we repeated the above step until the corresponding real-time contact numbers also meet zero. Infection risk may associate with age [ 12 , 13 ]. Thus, we assumed an age-specific susceptibility ) (see in the Supplementary Material, ) according to a previous study [ 12 ] and a time-dependent rate of transmissibility (T) from symptom [ 8 ] (i.e.…”

“…Infection risk may associate with age [ 12 , 13 ]. Thus, we assumed an age-specific susceptibility ) (see in the Supplementary Material, ) according to a previous study [ 12 ] and a time-dependent rate of transmissibility (T) from symptom [ 8 ] (i.e.…”

“…We first reported on all observed network links and then explored the dynamics of network topological structure (before and after widespread interventions). To illustrate whether network structures are closely related to disease-spreading processes, we then built network models to simulate underlying transmission processes by incorporating social contact strength [ 10 , 11 ], age distribution [ 12 , 13 ], and family contribution of symptomatic cases [ 14 , 15 ]. With these network models, simulations were constructed to study dynamic associations between the development of an epidemic and the transmission network structure under distinct scenarios.…”