Trends in Daily Rainfall Intensity Over Israel 1950/1-2003/4

Yosef, Yizhak; Saaroni, Hadas; Alpert, Pinhas

doi:10.2174/1874282300903010196

Cited by 38 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Spatially, there is a decreasing trend of rainfall from the northwest towards the east and south east. Mean annual rainfall and mean maximum daily rainfall are increasing but statistically not significant in two stations (RAS and JOU) in the subhumid zone and this is consistent with the findings with similar nearby subhumid regions such as central western parts of the Jordan river (Alpert et al, 2002;Wettenberg et al, 2007;Yusef et al, 2009). Mean annual rainfall in the semi-arid zone shows a general nonsignificant decreasing trend and this agrees with some earlier studies which reported nonsignificant decrease in mean daily and monthly rainfall (Freiwan and Kadioglu, 2008a;2008b;Ghanem, 2011).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Trends in Maximum Daily Rainfall in Marginal Desert Environment: Signs of Climate Change

Al-Qudah¹

2011

American Journal of Environmental Sciences

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Problem statement: Change in intense precipitation has been used as an indicator for anticipated climate change. The trend in maximum daily rainfall in 10 rainfall stations distributed in the north and north east of Jordan has been investigated. Based on mean annual rainfall and geographic location, rainfall stations were divided into subhumid, semi-arid and arid stations. Approach: The regression approach T-test and Mann-Kendall test were used to investigate significant trends in maximum daily rainfall. Logistic regression model used to test the trends in the frequency of heavy rainfall. Based on p-vales, significant trends were determined. Results: The results show that pronounced significant decreasing trend is observed in three out of four semi-arid stations used in this study. In arid stations, only one station out of three show significant increasing trend. However, none of the three subhumid stations used in the study show any significant trend. Logistic regression test for readings above 90th percentile among the maximum daily rainfall shows significant downward trend only in the semi-arid stations. Conclusion: The results of this study confirm that semi-arid zone is more vulnerable to climate change. Serious actions to mitigate and adapt to climate changes should be given a priority in the semi-arid zone. Redistribution of daily rainfall intensity will have a significant impact on water resources management.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Trends in Maximum Daily Rainfall in Marginal Desert Environment: Signs of Climate Change

Al-Qudah¹

2011

American Journal of Environmental Sciences

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“…Samuels et al (2017) have evaluated the ability of 23 models, participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), to predict extreme precipitation indices (EPI) in the 21st century over the EM. Such a trend has been shown over the Mediterranean region for the second half of the 20th century (Alpert et al, 2002;Zhang et al, 2005;Yosef et al, 2009;Ziv et al, 2014), though insignificant for the Middle East and Israel, attributed to the high inter-annual variability of precipitation in this region. These overestimations were related to the inadequate representation of topography in the GCMs, due to relatively coarse spatial resolutions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 76%

High‐resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO‐CLM

Hochman

Mercogliano

Alpert

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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High‐resolution climate projections over Israel (about 8 km) have been obtained with the regional model COSMO‐CLM, nested into the CORDEX‐MENA simulations at 25 km resolution. This simulation provides high‐resolution spatial variability of total precipitation and precipitation intensity. Projections are presented not only in terms of average properties, but also using a subset of extreme temperature and precipitation indices from the standard Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the period 2041–2070 with respect to 1981–2010 (RCP4.5). A general increase in seasonal mean temperature is projected throughout the domain with peaks of ~2.5 °C, especially in winter and autumn. Extreme temperature indices show increases, larger in the minimum than in the maximum temperatures. Regarding total seasonal precipitation, decreases were found in the north and central Mediterranean climate parts of Israel, with reductions reaching ~40%, and increases of the same percentage in the most southern arid parts during winter and spring. An increase in precipitation intensity is shown mostly for the southern arid part of the region, with some indications of extremity also in the north. This spatial pattern probably results from a decrease in cyclones’ occurrences, which mainly influences the northern and central parts of Israel, and an increase in convective activity in the south. The outcome of this study can serve as a basis for priority setting and policy formulation towards better climate adaptation.

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“…The comparison between NAO and EATL/WRUS, in Israel, gives an indication that both of them have the same influence on total precipitation. These results are also in line with previous ones which found a link between Israel rainfall and both NAO and EATL/WRUS patterns with maximum precipitation taking place during their positive phases (Krichak and Alpert, ; ; Yosef et al ., ). During the positive phase of the EATL/WRUS, our results show high precipitation amounts in the EM, North Africa, eastern Turkey and Sicily, while this relationship is reversed in the western, central Mediterranean and central parts of Europe.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal variability of daily precipitation concentration and its relationship to teleconnection patterns over the Mediterranean during 1975–2015

Mathbout

López-Bustins

Royé

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study has addressed the spatiotemporal distribution of the daily rainfall concentration and its relation to the teleconnection patterns across the Mediterranean (MR). Daily concentration index (CI) and the ordered n index ( nor) are used at annual time scale to reveal the statistical structure of precipitation across the MR based on 233 daily rainfall series for the period 1975–2015. Eight teleconnection patterns, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO), Upper‐Level Mediterranean Oscillation index (ULMO), East Atlantic (EA) pattern, East Atlantic/West Russia (EATL/WRUS) pattern, Scandinavia (SCAND) pattern and Southern Oscillation (SO) at annual time scale are selected. The spatiotemporal patterns in precipitation concentration indices, annual precipitation and their teleconnections with previous large‐scale circulations are investigated. Results show a strong connection between the CI and the nor (r = 0.70, p < .05) which present the same relative areas of high and low concentration. The annual values range from 0.57 to 0.70 for CI and 0.49 to 0.71 for nor index which show a high daily precipitation concentration across the MR. Trend analysis demonstrated mostly significant increasing trends for both indices. This increase is mainly found in south France, northern coastlands of the Iberian Peninsula (IP), Greece and Tunisia. An inverse relationship between the number of rainy days and concentration indices is evident. Both of WeMO and MO can play an important role in modulating rainfall in the northwest Mediterranean. The positive EATL/WRUS phase is mainly connected with positive precipitation mean anomalies in the eastern Mediterranean and vice versa in the west. The high daily precipitation concentration values over south France, northeast Spain, Croatia and Tunisia are linked to the low values of WeMO and high values of EA. These results could pave the way for new possibilities regarding the projection of precipitation concentration and precipitation irregularity in downscaling techniques.

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Trends in Daily Rainfall Intensity Over Israel 1950/1-2003/4

Cited by 38 publications

References 23 publications

Trends in Maximum Daily Rainfall in Marginal Desert Environment: Signs of Climate Change

Trends in Maximum Daily Rainfall in Marginal Desert Environment: Signs of Climate Change

High‐resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO‐CLM

Spatiotemporal variability of daily precipitation concentration and its relationship to teleconnection patterns over the Mediterranean during 1975–2015

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