Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

A review on resilience assessment of energy systems

“…Overall, among the 87 quantitative studies, 48 are probabilistic. Many deterministic and probabilistic methods have been applied to quantify the resilience curve, including complex networks theory (Afgan & Cvetinovic, 2013;Akhavein & Fotuhi Firuzabad, 2011;Anghel et al, 2007;Bagchi et al, 2013;Bilal et al, 2016;Bompard et al, 2010;Carvalho et al, 2014;Cavalieri et al, 2014;Cimellaro et al, 2012;Cong et al, 2018;Ellison et al, 2013;Esposito et al, 2013;Fang & Sansavini, 2018;Hernandez-Fajardo & Dueñas-Osorio, 2013;Hines et al, 2010;Holmgren, 2007;Kim et al, 2017;Kyriakidis et al, 2018a;Layton, 2004;Li et al, 2017;Lustenberger et al, 2017;Martinez-Anido et al, 2012;Montoya, 2010;Moslehi & Reddy, 2018;Nadeau, 2007;Nan et al, 2013;Nezamoddini et al, 2017;Ouyang & Dueñas-Osorio, 2014;Ouyang et al, 2012Ouyang et al, , 2009Panteli et al, 2017;Poljansek et al, 2010;Rocchetta et al, 2018;Schiel et al, 2017;Shinozuka et al, 2004;Su et al, 2017Su et al, , 2018Veeramany et al, 2017;…”

“…In the oil and gas sector, the deterministic or probabilistic flow through the distribution network is a well-established indicator (Carvalho et al, 2014;Lustenberger et al, 2017;Nadeau, 2007). More than half of the studies use complex networks theory to model the studied infrastructure in order to quantify the 'resist' function of resilience (Akhavein & Fotuhi Firuzabad, 2011;Bilal et al, 2016;Bompard et al, 2010;Carvalho et al, 2014;Cimellaro et al, 2012;Cong et al, 2018;Holmgren, 2007;Kim et al, 2017;Kyriakidis et al, 2018a;Layton, 2004;Li et al, 2017Li et al, , 2016Lustenberger et al, 2017;Martinez-Anido et al, 2012;Nadeau, 2007;Nezamoddini et al, 2017;Ouyang & Dueñas-Osorio, 2014;Ouyang et al, 2012;Rocchetta et al, 2018;Shinozuka et al, 2004;Su et al, 2017Su et al, , 2018Veeramany et al, 2017). Generally, energy system networks are considered 'complex' because of their nontrivial topological features, and because their elements (i.e., nodes and links) are neither purely random nor regular.…”

“…In contrast, fuel reserves are a preferred option to cope with short-term supply shortages, and thus many countries have minimal local storage requirements (Fisher et al, 2010;Gnansounou, 2008;Molyneaux et al, 2012;Mu et al, 2011). While diversity and fuel reserves can usually be addressed by deterministic approaches, cascading effects are typically analysed using probabilistic approaches in combination with complex networks theory for infrastructure modelling (Anghel et al, 2007;Bagchi et al, 2013;Cavalieri et al, 2014;Cimellaro et al, 2012;Esposito et al, 2013;Hernandez-Fajardo & Dueñas-Osorio, 2013;Hines et al, 2010;Holmgren, 2007;Li et al, 2017Li et al, , 2016Lustenberger et al, 2017;Nezamoddini et al, 2017;Ouyang & Dueñas-Osorio, 2014;Ouyang et al, 2012Ouyang et al, , 2009Panteli et al, 2017;Poljansek et al, 2010;Schiel et al, 2017;Su et al, 2017;Veeramany et al, 2017). This combination allows estimating probabilistically if an initial failure will propagate through the entire network, and result in a collapsing behaviour, which is one of the possible shapes of the resilience curve (see Figure 1).…”

“…This combination allows estimating probabilistically if an initial failure will propagate through the entire network, and result in a collapsing behaviour, which is one of the possible shapes of the resilience curve (see Figure 1). Therefore, it is not surprising that all the quantitative studies analysing cascading failures (14 out of 87) include the 'restabilize' function of resilience (Anghel et al, 2007;Bagchi et al, 2013;Baghersad & Zobel, 2015;Cavalieri et al, 2014;Hernandez-Fajardo & Dueñas-Osorio, 2013;Kim et al, 2017;Li et al, 2017;Makarov & Moharari, 1999;Montoya, 2010;Nan et al, 2013;Nan & Sansavini, 2017;Ouyang et al, 2012;Panteli et al, 2017;Veeramany et al, 2017).…”

Modeling and Quantification of Power System Resilience to Natural Hazards: A Case of Landslide

“…According to the definition of a resilient power system, resilient studies can be divided into different categories. In the first category, researchers strive to anticipate the impact of a natural event on the power system by modeling the occurrence of the event, identifying the components that are likely to be damaged and the overall operating condition of the system after the event [7][8][9][10]. Such resilience studies are complicated since predicting the intensity and spatiotemporal characteristics of a natural event and its impact on power system components are extremely difficult.…”