Tropical origins for recent and future Northern Hemisphere climate change

Selten, Frank; Branstator, Grant; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Kliphuis, Michael

doi:10.1029/2004gl020739

Cited by 99 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…For example, we need to improve our modelling of the circulation (Gillett 2005). This requires a better understanding of the (potentially) important processes: large-scale drying over the continent in summer (Pal and Eltahir 2003), poleward extension of the jet stream (Yin 2005), and remote atmospheric tele-connection patterns originating from the tropical ocean (Selten et al 2004;Hurrell et al 2004). The interaction between circulation changes and continental drying and snow feedbacks also needs more investigation.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A study on combining global and regional climate model results for generating climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation for the Netherlands

et al. 2007

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Climate scenarios for the Netherlands are constructed by combining information from global and regional climate models employing a simplified, conceptual framework of three sources (levels) of uncertainty impacting on predictions of the local climate. In this framework, the first level of uncertainty is determined by the global radiation balance, resulting in a range of the projected changes in the global mean temperature. On the regional (1,000-5,000 km) scale, the response of the atmospheric circulation determines the second important level of uncertainty. The third level of uncertainty, acting mainly on a local scale of 10 (and less) to 1,000 km, is related to the small-scale processes, like for example those acting in atmospheric convection, clouds and atmospheric meso-scale circulations-processes that play an important role in extreme events which are highly relevant for society. Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools to quantify the first two levels of uncertainty, while high resolution regional climate models (RCMs) are more suitable to quantify the third level. Along these lines, results of an ensemble of RCMs, driven by only two GCM boundaries and therefore spanning only a rather narrow range in future climate predictions, are rescaled to obtain a broader uncertainty range. The rescaling is done by first disentangling the climate change response in the RCM simulations into a part related to the circulation, and a residual part which is related to the global temperature rise. Second, these responses are rescaled using the range of the predictions of global temperature change and circulation change from five GCMs. These GCMs have been selected on their ability to simulate the present-day circulation, in particular over Europe. For the seasonal means, the rescaled RCM results obey the range in the GCM ensemble using a high and low emission scenario. Thus, the rescaled RCM results are consistent with the GCM results for the means, while adding information on the small scales and the extremes. The method can be interpreted as a combined statistical-dynamical downscaling approach, with the statistical relations based on regional model output.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A study on combining global and regional climate model results for generating climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation for the Netherlands

et al. 2007

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“…This BAU scenario closely follows the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1 scenario and CO 2 concentrations increase to 640 ppmv by 2080, the end of the simulation period (Dai et al 2001). For more details on the model and on the ensemble experiment we refer to Boville et al (2001) and Selten et al (2004), respectively.…”

Section: The Ensemble Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Future changes in internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

et al. 2007

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The response of the internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) to enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has been estimated from an ensemble of climate change scenario runs. In the model, enhanced greenhouse forcing results in a weaker and shallower MOC with reduced internal variability. At the same time at 55°N between 0 and 1,000 m the overturning increases as a result of a change in the area of convection. In a warmer world, new regions of deepwater formation form further north due to the poleward retreat of the sea-ice boundary. The dominant pattern of internal MOC-variability consists of a monopole centered around 35°N. Due to anthropogenic warming this monopole shifts poleward. The shift is associated with a stronger relation between MOC-variations and heat flux variations over the subpolar gyre. In old convective sites (Labrador Sea) convection becomes more irregular which leads to enhanced heat flux variability. In new convective sites heat flux variations initially are related to sea-ice variations. When the sea-ice coverage further decreases they become associated with (irregular) deepwater formation. Both processes act to tighten the relation between subpolar surface heat flux variability and MOC-variability, resulting in a poleward shift of the latter.

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“…Two notable features appear in the multi-model mean circulation response over the region: (1) an extension and equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit that enhance westerlies just offshore of the west coast (seen in the u250 field in Fig. 5), and (2) an inland migration of the North American ridge that enhances southerlies into Alaska (Fig 8; see also Selten et al (2004); Haarsma and Selten (2012); 360 Simpson et al (2016)). We examine the relationship between these wind changes and precipitation at two locations along the west coast.…”

Section: North American West Coastmentioning

confidence: 98%

Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

Li¹,

Michel²,

Graff³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract.This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5• C and 2.0 • C of warming using the HAPPI "Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts" ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterizing and understanding 5 this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to the 1.5• C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model 10

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Tropical origins for recent and future Northern Hemisphere climate change

Cited by 99 publications

References 16 publications

A study on combining global and regional climate model results for generating climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation for the Netherlands

A study on combining global and regional climate model results for generating climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation for the Netherlands

Future changes in internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

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