Understanding the growth models of news stories on disasters is a key issue for efficient disaster management. This article proposes a method to identify three growth models: the Damped Exponential Model, the Normal Model, and the Fluctuating Model. This method is proven to be valid using the 112 disasters occurring between 2003 and 2008. The factors that influence the likelihood of the growth models include disaster types, newsworthy material, disaster severity, and economic development of the affected area. This article suggests that disaster decision-makers can identify the respective likelihood of the three growth models of news stories when a disaster happens, and thereby implement effective measures in response to the disaster situation.
IntroductionDisasters can be defined as acute, collectively experienced traumatic events with a sudden onset, and they can be both natural (e.g., hurricanes, floods, earthquakes) and man-made (e.g., plane crashes, industrial accidents, terrorist attacks) (Norris, Friedman, & Watson, 2002). Meeting the information needs of the public and providing timely support are vital in disaster situations (Keselman, Slaughter, & Vimla, 2005). When a disaster hits an entire community or nation, most people experience the event largely through mass media (Rasinski, Berktold, Smith, & Albertson, 2002). In a world of severe competition, media organizations are also interested in boosting popularity ratings, and so may favor shocking or sensational information (Nacos, 2005). Despite the mass media's role as the most frequent source of information for the public to learn about disasters, the mass media are required to make choices about what they will share and emphasize in order to satisfy the public's demand for information about a disaster (Seeger, Sellnow, & Ulmer, 2003). In some instances, some information from mass media can arouse negative effects. Studies show that the number of news stories on a disaster directly affects audience response (CDC, 2002). The effects of news coverage of disasters on children can be especially troubling because the context of the disaster may not be understood clearly.The effective communication of disaster information is an important consideration for the mass media. Studies show that disaster coverage comprises a number of stages (Fink, 1986;Pauchant & Mitroff, 1992). According to the life-cycle perspective, the number of daily news stories about a disaster will increase until it reaches a vertex, then decrease (Rogers, Dearing, & Chang, 1991;Thelwall & Hellsten, 2006). This perspective is proved by some typical disasters, such as epidemic diseases and hurricanes (Shih, Wijaya, & Brossard, 2008). But do various disasters have a similar news coverage model? If not, what determines the coverage models? These questions have not been solved by quantitative methods yet.With the rapid development of society and the economy in China, natural or human caused disasters happen more and more frequently. Every day the public is exposed to a large volume of disast...