Um modelo bayesiano para investigação de sobremortalidade durante epidemia de dengue na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 2007-2008

Malhão, Thainá Alves; Resende, Camila Maria Casquilho; Friel, Nial; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade

doi:10.1590/0102-311x00070112

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…This was possibly mediated by the number of circulating serotype-susceptible people [ 29 , 30 ]. In Rio de Janeiro State in 2008, the dengue case incidence peak occurred during March and April3 [ 31 ], similar to the peak observed in Itaboraí.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 72%

Association among house infestation index, dengue incidence, and sociodemographic indicators: surveillance using geographic information system

et al. 2015

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BackgroundWe identified dengue transmission areas by using the Geographic Information Systems located at local surveillance units of the Itaboraí municipality in state of Rio de Janeiro. We considered the association among the house infestation index, the disease incidence, and sociodemographic indicators during a prominent dengue outbreak in 2007 and 2008.MethodsIn this ecological study, the Local Surveillance Units (UVLs) of the municipality were used as spatial pattern units. For the house analysis, we used the period of higher vector density that occurred previous to the larger magnitude epidemic range of dengue cases. The average dengue incidence rates calculated in this epidemic range were smoothed using the Bayesian method. The associations among the House Infestation Index (HI), the Bayesian rate of the average dengue incidence, and the sociodemographic indicators were evaluated using a Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The areas that were at a higher risk of dengue occurrence were detected using a kernel density estimation with the kernel quartic function.ResultsThe dengue transmission pattern in Itaboraí showed that the increase in the vector density preceded the increase in incidence. The HI was positively correlated to the Bayesian dengue incidence rate (r = 0.641; p = 0.01). The higher risk areas were those that were close to the main highways. In the Kernel density estimation analysis, we observed that the regions that were at a higher risk of dengue were those that were located in the UVLs and had the highest population densities; these locations were typically located along major highways. Four nuclei were identified as epicenters of high risk.ConclusionsThe spatial analysis units used in this research, i.e., UVLs, served as a methodological resource for examining the compatibility of different information sources concerning the disease, the vector indices, and the municipal sociodemographic aspects and were arranged in distinct cartographic bases. Dengue is a multi-scale geographic phenomenon, and using the UVLs as analysis units made it possible to differentiate the dengue occurrence throughout the municipality. The methodological approach used in this research helped improve the Itaboraí municipality monitoring activities and the local territorial monitoring in other municipalities that are affected by this public health issue.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 72%

Association among house infestation index, dengue incidence, and sociodemographic indicators: surveillance using geographic information system

et al. 2015

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“…2009 ). The epidemic reached its peak in March and April, with 86,036 and 90,945 human cases reported, respectively, and had ended by June ( Malhão et al 2013 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Field - All dengue-positive female Ae. aegypti were collected from March to early June 2008, corresponding to epidemic period reported by the Ministry of Health ( Malhão et al 2013 ). We analysed wing lengths of female Ae.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

She’s a femme fatale: low-density larval development produces good disease vectors

Juliano

Ribeiro²,

Maciel-de-Freitas³

et al. 2014

Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz

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Two hypotheses for how conditions for larval mosquitoes affect vectorial capacity make opposite predictions about the relationship of adult size and frequency of infection with vector-borne pathogens. Competition among larvae produces small adult females. The competition-susceptibility hypothesis postulates that small females are more susceptible to infection and predicts frequency of infection should decrease with size. The competition-longevity hypothesis postulates that small females have lower longevity and lower probability of becoming competent to transmit the pathogen and thus predicts frequency of infection should increase with size. We tested these hypotheses for Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during a dengue outbreak. In the laboratory, longevity increases with size, then decreases at the largest sizes. For field-collected females, generalised linear mixed model comparisons showed that a model with a linear increase of frequency of dengue with size produced the best Akaike’s information criterion with a correction for small sample sizes (AICc). Consensus prediction of three competing models indicated that frequency of infection increases monotonically with female size, consistent with the competition-longevity hypothesis. Site frequency of infection was not significantly related to site mean size of females. Thus, our data indicate that uncrowded, low competition conditions for larvae produce the females that are most likely to be important vectors of dengue. More generally, ecological conditions, particularly crowding and intraspecific competition among larvae, are likely to affect vector-borne pathogen transmission in nature, in this case via effects on longevity of resulting adults. Heterogeneity among individual vectors in likelihood of infection is a generally important outcome of ecological conditions impacting vectors as larvae.

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“…The epidemic period and change in the age profile, with an increase in the number of cases in children, presenting a disease whose clinical management was not common among pediatricians, may have contributed to this high case-fatality rate. Another study found these same factors, in addition to greater vulnerability in infants, as possible causes for this high death rate [16, 33].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socio-demographic inequalities in the clinical characteristics of dengue haemorrhagic fever in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2007–2008

et al. 2018

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In 2007-2008, the city of Rio de Janeiro underwent an epidemiological change, with increases in the incidence in children and in severe forms of dengue. To describe the clinical profile and spatial distribution of dengue we performed an ecological study based on dengue surveillance data using the Brazilian classification (2005): dengue fever, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue with complications. χ 2 test was used to describe the clinical and socio-demographic variables (P < 0.05). Spatial distribution of incidence and case-fatality was explored with thematic maps, Moran and Geary indices (P < 0.05). Of the total of 151 527 dengue cases, 38 808 met the inclusion criteria; 42.4% <18 years; 22.9% dengue with complications and 2.7% DHF. Case-fatality was higher in infants (1.4%) and in DHF (7.7%). Bleeding was more frequent in adolescents and adults while plasma leakage was more common in preschoolers and schoolchildren. The highest incidence was found in the West Zone of the city, in a different area from that of the worst case-fatality (P < 0.05). Although the incidence of DHF was higher in schoolchildren, infants showed higher case-fatality. The area with the highest case-fatality did not present the highest incidence, which suggests problems in the organization of health services.

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Um modelo bayesiano para investigação de sobremortalidade durante epidemia de dengue na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 2007-2008

Cited by 10 publications

References 18 publications

Association among house infestation index, dengue incidence, and sociodemographic indicators: surveillance using geographic information system

Association among house infestation index, dengue incidence, and sociodemographic indicators: surveillance using geographic information system

She’s a femme fatale: low-density larval development produces good disease vectors

Socio-demographic inequalities in the clinical characteristics of dengue haemorrhagic fever in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2007–2008

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