Uncertainties in flood risk mapping: a case study on estimating building damages for a river flood in Finland

Koivumäki, Laura; Alho, Petteri; Lotsari, Eliisa; Käyhkö, Jukka; Saari, Arto; Hyyppä, Hannu

doi:10.1111/j.1753-318x.2010.01064.x

Cited by 57 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…If many objects are affected, these errors compensate each other which reduces the uncertainty in the total damage. Use of high-resolution elevation information is also very useful to reduce this uncertainty (Koivumäki et al, 2010).…”

Section: Uncertainty In Object/land Use Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty in flood damage estimates and its potential effect on investment decisions

Wagenaar

Bruijn

Bouwer

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

108

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Abstract. This paper addresses the large differences that are found between damage estimates of different flood damage models. It explains how implicit assumptions in flood damage functions and maximum damages can have large effects on flood damage estimates. This explanation is then used to quantify the uncertainty in the damage estimates with a Monte Carlo analysis. The Monte Carlo analysis uses a damage function library with 272 functions from seven different flood damage models. The paper shows that the resulting uncertainties in estimated damages are in the order of magnitude of a factor of 2 to 5. The uncertainty is typically larger for flood events with small water depths and for smaller flood events. The implications of the uncertainty in damage estimates for flood risk management are illustrated by a case study in which the economic optimal investment strategy for a dike segment in the Netherlands is determined. The case study shows that the uncertainty in flood damage estimates can lead to significant over-or under-investments.

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Section: Uncertainty In Object/land Use Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty in flood damage estimates and its potential effect on investment decisions

Wagenaar

Bruijn

Bouwer

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

108

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…These models can be used to determine flood inundation areas, flood risk management, river management, and river rehabilitation [38,[40][41][42][43]. DTM is the essential input data for hydrodynamic and morphodynamic modeling and fluvial geomorphological studies [18,19,[44][45][46]. The inclusion of detailed information on vegetation cover and its yearly stability improves the model simulation results [34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Area-Based Approach for Mapping and Monitoring Riverine Vegetation Using Mobile Laser Scanning

et al. 2013

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Vegetation plays an important role in stabilizing the soil and decreasing fluvial erosion. In certain cases, vegetation increases the accumulation of fine sediments. Efficient and accurate methods are required for mapping and monitoring changes in the fluvial environment. Here, we develop an area-based approach for mapping and monitoring the vegetation structure along a river channel. First, a 2 × 2 m grid was placed over the study area. Metrics describing vegetation density and height were derived from mobile laser-scanning (MLS) data and used to predict the variables in the nearest-neighbor (NN) estimations. The training data were obtained from aerial images. The vegetation cover type was classified into the following four classes: bare ground, field layer, shrub layer, and canopy layer. Multi-temporal MLS data sets were applied to the change detection of riverine vegetation. This approach successfully classified vegetation cover with an overall classification accuracy of 72.6%; classification accuracies for bare ground, field layer, OPEN ACCESSRemote Sens. 2013, 5 5286 shrub layer, and canopy layer were 79.5%, 35.0%, 45.2% and 100.0%, respectively. Vegetation changes were detected primarily in outer river bends. These results proved that our approach was suitable for mapping riverine vegetation.

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“…Thus, this topic represents a general key factor in the framework of risk analyses but has received only minor attention in the past (Koivumäki, 2010), In contrast to the methodological improvements and thorough discussions especially of hazard analysis approaches but also of vulnerability concepts (Koivumäki, 2010), only a few method descriptions and explicit case-studies are discussed in scientific literature (for more details see e.g. Huttenlau and Stötter, 2008).…”

Section: The Risk Conceptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

Huttenlau

Stötter

Stiefelmeyer

2010

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of Correspondence to: M. Huttenlau (huttenlau@alps-gmbh.com) buildings, dwellings and inventory, vehicles, and individuals, a detailed geodatabase of the existing stock of elements and values was established on a single object level. Therefore, the localized and functional differentiated stock of elements was assessed monetarily on the basis of derived representative mean insurance values. Thus, well known difference factors between the analysis of the stock of elements and values on local and on regional scale could be reduced considerably. The spatial join of the results of the hazard analysis with the stock of elements and values enables the identification and quantification of the elements at risk and their corresponding damage potential. Thereupon, Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) were analysed under consideration of different vulnerability approaches which describe the individual element's specific susceptibility. This results in scenario-specific ranges of ESL rather than in single values. The exposure analysis of the general endangerment in Tyrol identifies (i) 105 330 indiv...

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Uncertainties in flood risk mapping: a case study on estimating building damages for a river flood in Finland

Cited by 57 publications

References 45 publications

Uncertainty in flood damage estimates and its potential effect on investment decisions

Uncertainty in flood damage estimates and its potential effect on investment decisions

Area-Based Approach for Mapping and Monitoring Riverine Vegetation Using Mobile Laser Scanning

Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

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