Understanding Economic Processes Through the Lens of Econometric Methods

Abstract

In this study, the authors highlight the importance of studying the impact of export transactions on changes in gross domestic product as the main indicator of the state of the national economy. To substantiate the feasibility of using the method for estimating multiple dependence equations, the authors compare the capabilities of some econometric approaches, and indicate the feasibility of using each of them. The emphasis has been placed on the importance of examining the state of export-import transactions as an inseparable part of the country's balance of paymentsthe information obtained is an integral part of the system for understanding the dynamics of the constituent economic processes. To verify the interdependence of changes in economic phenomena, it is proposed to use the method of statistical equations of dependencies, which made it possible to model changes in the volume of export transactions and gross domestic product by 2025, using Ukraine as an example. By comparing the results obtained by the authors and official forecast data (on the example of some statistical data of Ukraine), certain recommendations are made regarding the possible improvement of the effectiveness of forecasting macroeconomic indicators of the state of the national economy. The results presented in this study can be used to increase the efficiency (improvement) of methodological apparatuses for forecasting economic processes in states with developed market economies.

Agricultural business in independent Ukraine: thirty-year dynamics of the reorganization process

“…Each country has own peculiarities in economics because of climate, geolocation, historical traditions, preferences in growth, types of owning and other features. This side was studied by investigators [4][5][6], who reconstructed and described econometric models of trends for European and post-Soviet countries.…”