Using ecological niche models to describe the geographical distribution of the myiasis-causing Cochliomyia hominivorax (Diptera: Calliphoridae) in southern South America

Mulieri, Pablo Ricardo; Patitucci, Luciano Damián

doi:10.1007/s00436-019-06267-0

Cited by 25 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…It is known that the highest values are an indication of the good performance of the used model (e.g. Mulieri and Patitucci, 2019 , Hosni et al, 2020 , Jamal et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the potential distribution of the predator of honey bees, Palarus latifrons, in the Arabian deserts using Maxent and GIS

Al-Khalaf

2021

Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences

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Objectives The species Palarus latifrons (bee pirates) has been recorded in Saudi Arabia as an invasive species. This pest can destroy honey bee colonies under certain conditions. The origin of this species in Africa and it has a good ability to adapt to desert conditions. Studies on this species are very few but its current distribution in the Arabian deserts is mainly in the Arabian Gulf countries. This study presents maps for the possible expansion of this species to invade other desert areas in the Arabian countries’ under current and near-future conditions (2030). Methods This pest is a solitary insect with high activity during summer. It is hypothesized that summer conditions and especially temperature are the limiting factor for its distribution in the deserts. The analysis depended on generating maps based on temperatures during summer and based on two bioclimatic factors. Maxent and the geographical information system (GIS) were used to perform the analysis. Results and conclusions All maps showed the high ability of this pest to spread in the Gulf countries. In North Africa: south Egypt and Libya, and some parts of Algeria showed suitability for Palarus . The invasion of this pest towards North Africa can happen mostly due to trading activities with Gulf countries especially materials containing soil. Continues monitoring for the activity of Palarus in the risk areas is highly advised.

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“…It is known that the highest values are an indication of the good performance of the used model (e.g. Mulieri and Patitucci, 2019 , Hosni et al, 2020 , Jamal et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the potential distribution of the predator of honey bees, Palarus latifrons, in the Arabian deserts using Maxent and GIS

Al-Khalaf

2021

Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences

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“…The values of area under curve for training and test data were high and close to 1 in case of P. latifrons and P. triangulum. Such high values indicate the perfect performance of the model (Mulieri & Patitucci, 2019;Hosni et al, 2020;Abou-Shaara et al, 2021;Abou-Shaara and Darwish, 2021;Jamal et al, 2021). Therefore, the jackknife tests for all variables used with P. latifrons and P. triangulum showed high values over 0.70 except one variable.…”

Section: Model Accuracymentioning

confidence: 92%

Predicting with the pest status of two main insects that attacking honey bee colonies in Africa based on the future climatic changes

Eid

Abou‐Shaara

2021

Journal of Plant Protection and Pathology

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The effects of future climate changes on the prevalence of Palarus latifrons Kohl. and Philanthus triangulum Fab that attacking honey bee colonies in Africa have not been studied before. Ecological modeling using Maxent and geographical information system (GIS) was used to achieve the study objective. The highest contribution in the model was to the annual mean temperature followed by mean temperature of the coldest quarter. The model performance was high and perfect in light of the used evaluation parameters. Some areas in southern and northern parts of Africa were suitable for the prevalence of P. latifrons Kohl. and P. triangulum Fab under current conditions. The study maps for future conditions during 2050 and 2070 highlighted the negative effects of climate change on the prevalence of these pests in specific parts in Africa. The consequences of such prevalence/limitation of P. latifrons and P. triangulum on beekeeping in Africa were discussed.

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“…Higher AUC values suggested significant influences of the model with the ecology of OWSF. Values less than 0.5 indicated poor-fitting models while AUC values more than 0.75 indicated high-fitting of the models 47,48 . In addition, the True Skilled Statistics (TSS), a common statistical method, was used to evaluate the accuracy of predicted models.…”

Section: Methods Occurrence Recordsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling current and future global distribution of Chrysomya bezziana under changing climate

Hosni

Nasser

Al-Ashaal

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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In the last few years, significant changes in climate have had a disparate effect on biodiversity. The influences of these changes are random and unpredictable. The resurgence of insect pests, especially of medical and veterinary importance, often corresponds with climate changes. The Old World screwworm, Chrysomya bezziana, is one of the most important myiasis-causing flies that parasitize warm-blooded animals in the Eastern Hemisphere. We used a spatial distribution modeling approach to estimate the consequences of climatic changes on the potential geographic distribution of this insect throughout the world currently and in the future. A Maxent model used occurrence data from 104 localities and 19 climatic factors to predict the suitable habitat regions throughout the world. Two representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5, were used to forecast the future distribution of C. bezziana in 2050 and 2070. The Maxent model for C. bezziana provided a satisfactory result, with a high value of the Area Under Curve equal to 0.855 (±0.001). Furthermore, the True Skilled Statistics value is equal to 0.67. These values indicate the significant influence on the model of the ecology of this fly species. Jackknife test indicated that temperature variables play a significant role in C. bezziana dynamics. The resultant models indicated the areas at risk of invasion by potential serious medical/ veterinary issues, especially in countries with a large livestock production. Throughout the long history of our planet, the climate has changed dramatically, but in the last few decades global warming has become more tangible even for the layman 1,2. Greenhouse gases emitted as a result of anthropogenic action are the main factors driving global warming 3. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted an increase of about a 1.8-4 °C in global temperature by the end of the 21 st century as a result of high CO 2 levels 4. This form a challenge for many ecosystems throughout the world, threatening ecological processes and impacting on biodiversity, including insects 5. Conversely, climate change is one of the most important factors associated with the resurgence of insect pests. Many medically important pests such as mosquitoes (Culicidae) will invade new regions because of changes in global temperature 6. Flies that cause myiasis will also be able to invade new regions and impact the livestock economy in different parts of the world. Myiasis is a type of parasitism in which the living tissues of a vertebrate host are infested by dipterous larvae 7. This phenomenon is widespread throughout the world, especially the tropical regions. It usually occurs in both domestic and wild animals and, under certain conditions, in humans 8,9. The Old World screwworm fly (OWSF) Chrysomya bezziana (Villeneuve) is an obligate parasite causing myiasis in animals and humans in the Eastern Hemisphere 7,9,10. Females deposit their eggs in wounds or near the natural body orifices of the targeted host. Then the maggots burrow and feed o...

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Using ecological niche models to describe the geographical distribution of the myiasis-causing Cochliomyia hominivorax (Diptera: Calliphoridae) in southern South America

Cited by 25 publications

References 47 publications

Modeling the potential distribution of the predator of honey bees, Palarus latifrons, in the Arabian deserts using Maxent and GIS

Modeling the potential distribution of the predator of honey bees, Palarus latifrons, in the Arabian deserts using Maxent and GIS

Predicting with the pest status of two main insects that attacking honey bee colonies in Africa based on the future climatic changes

Modeling current and future global distribution of Chrysomya bezziana under changing climate

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