Variability and predictability of Northeast China climate during 1948–2012

A role of the Atlantic Ocean in predicting summer surface air temperature over North East Asia?

“…The latter is consistent with the rapid warming which occurred there during the mid-1990s (Chen and Lu 2014). We do not obtain a strong warming over NEA for the other seasons (not shown), in consistency with Gao et al (2014), which have shown that the "shift" was stronger in summer than in winter. In both observations and DePreSys3, the SAT evolution over the North Atlantic (SPG and AMV) is similar to the evolution of the SAT over the NEA box.…”

“…Similar levels of skill in predicting the AMV, SPG and NEA indices do not imply by itself a relationship between North Atlantic and NEA. However, the SAT has undergone a similar multidecadal evolution in each of these regions, with a cooling over the 1960s and a warming during the 1990s, which has shown by numerous authors for the AMV (Martin and Thorncroft 2014; among others), the SPG (Robson et al 2012) and NEA (Zhao et al 2014;Chen and Lu 2014;Gao et al 2014;Dong et al 2016) (see also Fig. S5ac).…”

Abrupt summer warming and changes in temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: Drivers and physical processes

“…Associated with the weakened EASM circulation were increases in precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley and decreases over northern China, exhibiting a so-called "southern-flood-northern-drought" (SFND) pattern (e.g., Ding et al, 2008Ding et al, , 2009Zhao et al, 2010;Huang et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2013, Zhao et al, 2014, Han et al, 2015Ueda et al, 2015). Also accompanying the weakening EASM circulation were changes in seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over China and a large domain of Northeast Asia, and an increase in the frequency of dry spells and droughts (Ren et al, 2010;Wei and Chen, 2011;Li et al, 2012, Qi andWang et al, 2012;Wen et al, 2013;Chen and Lu, 2014;Gao et al, 2014aGao et al, , 2014bQian et al, 2014;Song et al, 2014;Sun et al, 2014;Yang et al, 2014).…”

“…Previous attribution studies suggest that the changes in SSTs, GHG concentrations, and AA precursor emissions through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions are all important factors for the SFND pattern and associated drought over North and northeastern China (e.g., Kwon et al, 2007;Feng and Hu, 2008;Kosaka and Xie, 2013;Andrews, 2014;Gao et al, 2014aGao et al, , 2014bKamae et al, 2014aKamae et al, , 2014bQian et al, 2014;Song et al, 2014;Trenberth et al, 2014;Urabe and Maeda, 2014;Folini and Wild, 2015;Ueda et al, 2015;Wilcox et al, 2015;Zhang and Zhou, 2015). Previous studies have also revealed that decadal climate variability over East Asia is associated with low-frequency SST variability over the Pacific Ocean (e.g., Kwon et al, 2007, Kosaka andXie, 2013;Kamae et al, 2014a;Trenberth et al, 2014;Ueda et al, 2015) and Atlantic Ocean (Feng and Hu, 2008;Kamae et al, 2014a;Qian et al, 2014) via atmospheric teleconnections.…”

Do Climate Change and El Niño Increase Likelihood of Yangtze River Extreme Rainfall?

“…This implies that other factors, such as sea-ice, land surface processes, stratosphere, and unforced internal variability due to the chaos of the weather, may play a role. Moreover, Gao et al (2014) argued that only a small fraction of monthly precipitation in eastern China is predictable. He et al (2016) also indicated that only about 18% of the interannual variation of rainfall over East Asian land can be explained by SST.…”