Variance misperception under skewed empirical noise statistics explains overconfidence in the visual periphery

Winter, Charles Jarrett; Peters, Megan A. K.

doi:10.1101/2021.01.08.425966

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 120 publications

(326 reference statements)

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“…The presence of dud alternatives might add perceptual noise, causing the participants to have higher levels of confidence if they do not adjust their type 2 criteria accordingly. Moreover, recently reported evidence in value-based decisions indicate that irrelevant alternatives remain at an attentional periphery (Gluth et al, 2020), where there are effects of variance misperception and overconfidence (Winter & Peters, 2021). Larger stimuli presentations would also rule out possible variance misperception effects, due to a higher signal to noise ratio.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The probability of choosing a stimulus might negatively depend on the value or the number of the alternative options (Louie et al, 2011(Louie et al, , 2013. Moreover, it has recently been proposed that the allocation of attention -modulated by the value of stimuli (Gluth et al, 2020) or its location (Winter & Peters, 2021)-might also give rise to context influence on decision-making. Nevertheless, partly due to the prevalence of 2AFC tasks paradigms, the impact of these effects on confidence remains unknown.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The presence of irrelevant alternatives paradoxically increases confidence in perceptual decisions

Comay¹,

Bella²,

Lamberti³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Confidence in perceptual decisions often reflects the probability of being correct. Hence, we predicted that confidence should be unaffected or be minimally decreased by the presence of irrelevant alternatives. To test this prediction, we designed three experiments. In Experiment 1, participants had to identify the largest geometrical shape among two or three alternatives. In the three-alternative condition, one of the shapes was much smaller than the other two, being a clearly incorrect choice. Counter-intuitively, all else being equal, confidence was higher when the irrelevant alternative was present. We accounted for this effect with a computational model where confidence increases monotonically with the number of irrelevant alternatives, a prediction we confirmed in Experiment 2. In Experiment 3, we evaluated whether this effect replicated in a categorical task, but we did not find supporting evidence. Our findings stimulate the use of multi-alternative decision-making tasks to build a thorough understanding of confidence.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The presence of irrelevant alternatives paradoxically increases confidence in perceptual decisions

Comay¹,

Bella²,

Lamberti³

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Dual strategies in human confidence judgments

Bertana¹,

Chetverikov²,

Bergen

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Although confidence is commonly believed to be an essential element in decision making, it remains unclear what gives rise to one’s sense of confidence. Recent Bayesian theories propose that confidence is computed, in part, from the degree of uncertainty in sensory evidence. Alternatively, observers can use physical properties of the stimulus as a heuristic to confidence. In the current study, we developed ideal observer models for either hypothesis and compared their predictions against human data obtained from psychophysical experiments. Participants reported the orientation of a stimulus, and their confidence in this estimate, under varying levels of internal and external noise. As predicted by the Bayesian model, we found a consistent link between confidence and behavioral variability for a given stimulus orientation. Confidence was higher when orientation estimates were more precise, for both internal and external sources of noise. However, we observed the inverse pattern when comparing between stimulus orientations: although observers gave more precise orientation estimates for cardinal orientations (a phenomenon known as the oblique effect), they were more confident about oblique orientations. We show that these results are well explained by a strategy to confidence that is based on the perceived amount of noise in the stimulus. Altogether, our results suggest that confidence is not always computed from the degree of uncertainty in one’s perceptual evidence, but can instead be based on visual cues that function as simple heuristics to confidence.

show abstract

Dual strategies in human confidence judgments

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Although confidence is commonly believed to be an essential element in decision-making, it remains unclear what gives rise to one's sense of confidence. Recent Bayesian theories propose that confidence is computed, in part, from the degree of uncertainty in sensory evidence. Alternatively, observers can use physical properties of the stimulus as a heuristic to confidence. In the current study, we developed ideal observer models for either hypothesis and compared their predictions against human data obtained from psychophysical experiments. Participants reported the orientation of a stimulus, and their confidence in this estimate, under varying levels of internal and external noise. As predicted by the Bayesian model, we found a consistent link between confidence and behavioral variability for a given stimulus orientation. Confidence was higher when orientation estimates were more precise, for both internal and external sources of noise. However, we observed the inverse pattern when comparing between stimulus orientations: although observers gave more precise orientation estimates for cardinal orientations (a phenomenon known as the oblique effect), they were more confident about oblique orientations. We show that these results are well explained by a strategy to confidence that is based on the perceived amount of noise in the stimulus. Altogether, our results suggest that confidence is not always computed from the degree of uncertainty in one's perceptual evidence but can instead be based on visual cues that function as simple Heuristics to confidence.

show abstract

Variance misperception under skewed empirical noise statistics explains overconfidence in the visual periphery

Cited by 3 publications

References 120 publications

The presence of irrelevant alternatives paradoxically increases confidence in perceptual decisions

The presence of irrelevant alternatives paradoxically increases confidence in perceptual decisions

Dual strategies in human confidence judgments

Dual strategies in human confidence judgments

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