Vegetation and weather explain variation in crown damage within a large mixed-severity wildfire

Thompson, Jonathan R.; Spies, Thomas A.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.07.031

Cited by 116 publications

(119 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The greater influence of weather compared to fuel is in agreement with many other studies of fire behaviour that find weather to be the most important factor determining the spread and size of fires (Bessie and Johnson 1995;Arienti et al 2006;Bradstock et al 2010;Price and Bradstock 2011). The only variable theme missing from the final model was topography, which is surprising because slope, aspect and topography are known to influence many aspects of fire behaviour, including severity (Thompson and Spies 2009;Price and Bradstock 2012) and spread (McArthur 1967;Price and Bradstock 2010). The absence of topography in the models is probably due to the co-occurrence of intact forest on steep slopes (tree clearance has occurred predominantly on flatter ground).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

An empirical wildfire risk analysis: the probability of a fire spreading to the urban interface in Sydney, Australia

Price¹,

Borah²,

Bradstock³

et al. 2015

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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We present a method and case study to predict and map the likelihood of wildfires spreading to the urban interface through statistical analysis of past fire patterns using 15 000 lines from 677 fires with known ignition points and date and random potential end points on the urban interface of Sydney, Australia. A binomial regression approach was used to model whether the fire burnt to the end point of the lines as a function of measures of distance, fuel, weather and barriers to spread. Fire weather had the strongest influence on burning likelihood followed by the percentage of the line that was forested, distance and time since last fire. Fuel treatments would substantially reduce risk from fires starting 1-4 km away from the interface. The model captured 90% of variation in burning with 98% predictive accuracy on test data and was not affected by spatial autocorrelation. We apply the method to map fire risk in Sydney and discuss how the method could be expanded to estimate total risk (from ignition to impact on assets). The method has considerable promise for predicting risk, especially as a complement to simulation methods. AbstractWe present a method and case study to predict and map the likelihood of wildfires spreading to the urban interface through statistical analysis of past fire patterns using 15,000 lines from 677 fires with known ignition points and date and random potential end points on the urban interface of Sydney, Australia. A binomial regression approach was used to model whether the fire burnt to the end point of the lines as a function of measures of distance, fuel, weather and barriers to spread. Fire weather had the strongest influence on burning likelihood followed by the percentage of the line that was forested, distance and time since last fire. Fuel treatments would substantially reduce risk from fires starting 1 -4 km away from the interface. The model captured 90% of variation in burning with 98% predictive accuracy on test data and was not affected by spatial autocorrelation. We apply the method to map fire risk in Sydney and discuss how the method could be expanded to estimate total risk (from ignition to impact on assets). The method has considerable promise for predicting risk, especially as a compliment to simulation methods.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

An empirical wildfire risk analysis: the probability of a fire spreading to the urban interface in Sydney, Australia

Price¹,

Borah²,

Bradstock³

et al. 2015

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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“…Fire severity in our study fires was driven primarily by burning conditions and slope position, with almost all measures of fire severity increasing under extreme burning conditions (Table S7) and nearly half increasing on higher slope positions (Table S8)-effects that are common in forests unaffected by beetle outbreaks (32)(33)(34)(35). In red-stage stands, measures of fire severity were unrelated to prefire outbreak severity under moderate burning conditions ( Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks, wildfire severity, and postfire tree regeneration in the US Northern Rockies

Harvey

Donato

Turner

2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

122

123

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Widespread tree mortality caused by outbreaks of native bark beetles (Circulionidae: Scolytinae) in recent decades has raised concern among scientists and forest managers about whether beetle outbreaks fuel more ecologically severe forest fires and impair postfire resilience. To investigate this question, we collected extensive field data following multiple fires that burned subalpine forests in 2011 throughout the Northern Rocky Mountains across a spectrum of prefire beetle outbreak severity, primarily from mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae). We found that recent (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) beetle outbreak severity was unrelated to most field measures of subsequent fire severity, which was instead driven primarily by extreme burning conditions (weather) and topography. In the red stage (0-2 y following beetle outbreak), fire severity was largely unaffected by prefire outbreak severity with few effects detected only under extreme burning conditions. In the gray stage (3-10 y following beetle outbreak), fire severity was largely unaffected by prefire outbreak severity under moderate conditions, but several measures related to surface fire severity increased with outbreak severity under extreme conditions. Initial postfire tree regeneration of the primary beetle host tree [lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia)] was not directly affected by prefire outbreak severity but was instead driven by the presence of a canopy seedbank and by fire severity. Recent beetle outbreaks in subalpine forests affected few measures of wildfire severity and did not hinder the ability of lodgepole pine forests to regenerate after fire, suggesting that resilience in subalpine forests is not necessarily impaired by recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks. disturbance interactions | forest resilience | fire ecology | serotiny | conifer forest

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“…Crown fires are strongly driven by fire weather (i.e. high temperatures, low humidity, strong winds) (Luke and McArthur 1978;Thompson and Spies 2009;Price and Bradstock 2012), which may explain why mean annual precipitation had little effect on the occurrence of these fires. Under NEX weather there was a small increase in the likelihood of crown fire when going from low to high mean annual precipitation (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Weather, fuel availability and topography are key influences on fire severity in temperate forest ecosystems globally (Collins et al 2007; Thompson and Spies 2009;Bradstock et al 2010;Murphy and Russell-Smith 2010), and are often used to quantify fire risk and wildfire probability across large spatial scales (Bradstock et al 1998;Parisien et al 2012). However, the relative effect that these variables have on fire regimes may vary across landscapes in response to environmental gradients (Schoennagel et al 2004;Krawchuk and Moritz 2011;Perry et al 2011;Price and Bradstock 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can precipitation influence landscape controls on wildfire severity? A case study within temperate eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia

Collins

Bradstock

Penman

2014

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Abstract. The environmental, economic and social impacts of wildfires depend on spatial patterns of fire severity. An understanding as to how drivers of fire severity vary across broad vegetation communities exists. However, examination of variation within communities in response to gradients of moisture has received little attention so far. This study examined whether relationships between environmental variables (i.e. fire weather, topography and fuel age) and fire severity were modified by increasing mean annual precipitation. Understorey fires were more likely to occur in young fuels (i.e. ,5 years since fire) in drier sites, although this effect diminished as precipitation increased. The probability of occurrence of understorey fires under non-extreme weather and on steep slopes was reduced in wetter areas. Relationships between crown fire and weather, topography and fuel age were largely unaltered by the precipitation gradient, with only a marginally significant interaction occurring between weather and mean annual precipitation. Greater fine fuel accumulation associated with increased precipitation presumably reduced fuel limitations imposed by environmental factors (i.e. fire weather, slope, fuel age), altering their relative control on the probability of understorey fire. The probability of crown fires is predominantly driven by fire weather and is consequently less sensitive to precipitation gradients. Consideration of precipitation gradients will be necessary when identifying controls of fire severity and devising effective fire management strategies.

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Vegetation and weather explain variation in crown damage within a large mixed-severity wildfire

Cited by 116 publications

References 41 publications

An empirical wildfire risk analysis: the probability of a fire spreading to the urban interface in Sydney, Australia

An empirical wildfire risk analysis: the probability of a fire spreading to the urban interface in Sydney, Australia

Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks, wildfire severity, and postfire tree regeneration in the US Northern Rockies

Can precipitation influence landscape controls on wildfire severity? A case study within temperate eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia

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