Weather noise impact on the uncertainty of simulated water balance components of river basins

Abstract

To cite this article: Yeugeniy M. Gusev, Vladimir A. Semenov, Olga N. Nasonova & Evgeny E. Kovalev (2017) Weather noise impact on the uncertainty of simulated water balance components of river basins, ABSTRACT Assessments of hydrological response to climatic changes are characterized by different types of uncertainties. Here, the uncertainty caused by weather noise associated with the chaotic character of atmospheric processes is considered. A technique for estimating such uncertainty in simulated water balance components based on application of the land surface model SWAP and the climate model ECHAM5 is described. The technique is applied for estimating the uncertainties in the simulated water balance components (precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration) of some northern river basins of Russia. It is shown that the larger the area of a basin the less the uncertainty. This dependency is smoothed by differences in natural conditions of the basins. Analysis of the spectral densities of water balance components shows that a river basin filters out high-frequency harmonics of spectral density of precipitation (corresponding to synoptic or subseasonal scale) during its transformation into evapotranspiration and especially into runoff. ARTICLE HISTORY KEYWORDS climate and land surface models; water balance components; river basin; weather noise; uncertainty; spectral density CONTACT Yeugeniy M. Gusev sowaso@yandex.ru

Ubiquitous Fractal Scaling and Filtering Behavior of Hydrologic Fluxes and Storages from A Mountain Headwater Catchment

“…For example, Kirchner, et al [7], Weedon, et al [8], and Milly and Wetherald [9] reported that the streamflow power spectra were damped relative to the precipitation spectra up to threshold periods, beyond which the two power spectra were more closely aligned. Our results for precipitation, streamflow, and AET are also similar to those in large river basins located in the Russian Federation, where there are strong fractal relationships at shorter periods, but white-noise spectra at longer periods [10]. The transition from fractal scaling to white noise behavior for the daily change in soil water storage at MGC occurred at a period of~0.04 years, compared with estimates of 1 to 2 years for mid-latitude soils, calculated from a model-derived time series [11].…”

“…Fractal scaling behavior has been broadly observed in environmental research [1][2][3] and across scientific disciplines (e.g., [4][5][6]). In hydrology, catchment-scale water balance studies have found widespread evidence of fractal scaling in the relationship between precipitation and streamflow as input and output signals, respectively [7][8][9][10]. However, less is known about whether such scaling behavior is generally applicable to all components of the catchment water balance, and if so, at what temporal scale(s) fractal scaling is likely to apply.…”

“…Fractal scaling behavior provides information about relationships among water balance components. Previous studies have investigated this type of scaling using global circulation or land-atmosphere-ocean system models to simulate river basin discharge [8][9][10][11]. In contrast, Kirchner, et al [7] characterized fractal scaling behavior of streamflow and precipitation fluxes using high-density long-term observations for humid catchments at Plynlimon, Wales, U.K., where fractal behavior was shown to occur for periods less than~1 year, but not at longer periods.…”

Scenario forecast of changes of the water balance components in the Ob-Irtysh river basin in connection with potential climate change

“…КЛИМАтИчЕСКОГО ГОДОВОГО СтОКА р. ОбИ С ЕГО ЕСтЕСтВЕННОй МЕЖГОДОВОй ИзМЕНчИВОСтью, ВЫзВАННОй ПОГОДНЫМ шуМОМ Интересно сопоставить величину изменения стока р. Оби, связанного с возможными климатическими изменениями, с масштабом его естественной изменчивости, вызванной так называемым погодным шумом (weather noise), т.е. хаотической неустойчивостью атмосферных процессов, приводящих, в свою очередь, к случайным осцилляциям гидрологических процессов [10,18,20].…”