Which Party Gets the Mayoralty? A Multivariate Statistical Investigation of Danish Local Government Formation

Abstract

In non‐presidential multiparty systems, it is not only the voters but also coalition formation after the election that decides the government of the community. Some national‐level studies investigate which parties are most likely to win the Prime Minister's office. The aim of this article is to investigate the same question at the local level: What makes a party more likely to win the post of mayor? The article finds that party size and change in size are important along with experience and ideological centrality. The results are similar to those obtained at the national level, and this study thus expands the scope of these explanatory variables. However, the study also shows that being a large party is not sufficient for a party to have a good chance of winning the mayoralty. Furthermore, norms guiding appropriate behaviour seem important in addition to instrumental behaviour. It appears that parties that are popular in the electorate benefit from being perceived as more deserving of the mayoralty than others.

Does Electoral Competition Curb Party Favoritism?

“…The third measure compares the seat shares of the main parties in government and in opposition. Research on local government coalition formation in countries with a PR system shows that a party's seat share is the variable that best predicts whether this party is going to win control of the government (e.g., Skjaeveland and Serritzlew 2010). A shortcoming of this variable is that it neglects the fact that, on some occasions, there are parties in the opposition bloc that are ideologically close and prone to reaching an agreement even without a pre-electoral coalition.…”

Postcode Lottery or Systematic Differences in Norwegian Elder Care Provision?

“…The calculation of the municipal revenue is based on structural features outside local government control, and central government decide local government tax rate and tax base. Because all municipalities levy the maximum local tax rate, and this revenue is included in the state monetary transfer system, Norwegian municipalities have limited opportunities to influence their revenue, in fact much fewer than both Swedish and Danish municipalities have (Lewin et al, 2008;Monkerud & Sørensen, 2011;Skjaeveland & Serritzlew, 2010). It is therefore possible to consider the municipal revenue a result of national policies.…”