Who Benefits from Antidumping and Countervailing? An Analysis Using a Computable Partial Equilibrium Model

Breaking down barriers on PV trade will facilitate global carbon mitigation

“…The global simulation model (GSIM), which is a multiregional computable partial equilibrium model, was developed and expanded by Francois and Hall 159 , and it focuses on industry analysis from a global perspective, allowing for rapid and relatively transparent analysis of trade policy issues with minimal data and computational requirements 56 , 160 – 162 . This study adopts GSIM 6.0 to simulate the impacts of trade barriers on global solar cell and module prices (see Supplementary Fig.…”

“…Most studies have concentrated on the economic impact of the USA–China trade war 41 , 43 , 46 – 52 , and only a few have noted that trade wars are also likely to affect the environment by changing the global supply and consumption chain 53 , 54 and are less conducive to clean energy development in less-developed regions 55 . Very few studies have paid attention to the negative effects of trade wars on PV product trade, production and application 56 , cutting into global emissions reduction potential.…”

Barriers on PV trade will impede global carbon mitigation and local pollutant emissions reduction

“…The GSIM model was developed and expanded by Francois and Hall 110 and focuses on industry analysis from a global perspective, allowing for rapid and relatively transparent analysis of commercial policy issues with minimal data and computational requirements. 48,[111][112][113] The GSIM model can incorporate a maximum of 25 countries/economies or trade partners, so based on the European Commission determination 114,115 . The import tariff rate of the USA was set to 30% based on Section 201 116 , while a higher rate was imposed on Chinese PV products considering the superposition of Section 201, Section 301, and antidumping and countervailing policies [116][117][118] .…”

“…Three groups of data were collected and input into the GSIM model: trade value among the selected countries/economies, elasticities (supply, demand and substitution elasticities of solar cells and modules), and tariff rates before and after trade measure implementation. Trade values were obtained from UN Comtrade 52 , tariff rates were obtained from the WTO 108 and MOFCOM 109 (Supplementary Data 34), and elasticities of solar cell and module trade were obtained from current research 48 (Supplementary Table 6). The output value of the solar PV industry is quite limited, and the solar cell and module output values of various countries/economies in this study were calculated by the authors based on local production (or capacity) and price statistics.…”

“…Most literatures concentrated on the economic impact of the USA-China trade war [37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45] , only a few literature noticed that trade war was also likely to affect environment through changing global supply and consumption chain 46 , and less conducive to clean energy development in less-developed regions 47 . When it comes to PV products trade, very few literature paid attention to the negative effects of trade war on PV product trade, production and application 48 , cutting into global emissions reduction potential. This study will focus on the emission reduction potential of global PV product trade and the extra trade barrier on PV product to fill in the literature gap.…”