Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests

Ager, Alan A.; Day, Michelle A.; McHugh, Charles W.; Short, Karen C.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Finney, Mark A.; Calkin, David E.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.05.035

Cited by 71 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Most previous attempts to implement landscape fire management and planning in the EU have led to coarse scales and static, non-quantitative assessment outcomes of limited utility for landscape fire managers (reviewed in Miller and Ager 2013). Nevertheless, recent studies based on quantitative fire modeling assessment frameworks have been developed for the southern EU at various scales (Kalabokidis et al 2013;Salis et al 2013;Mitsopoulos et al 2014;Alcasena et al 2015), as well as for the USA (Ager et al 2014a; Thompson et al 2012Thompson et al , 2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain

2015

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Wildfires are a growing threat to socioeconomic and natural resources in the wildland-rural-urban intermix in central Navarra (Spain), where recent fastspreading and spotting short fire events have overwhelmed suppression capabilities. A fire simulation modeling approach based on the minimum travel time algorithm was used to analyze the wildfire exposure of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) in a 28,000 ha area. We replicated 30,000 fires at fine resolution (20 m), based on wildfire season and recent fire weather and moisture conditions, historical ignition patterns and spatially explicit canopy fuels derived from low-density airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR). Detailed maps of simulated fire likelihood, fire intensity and fire size were used to assess spatial patterns of HVRA exposure to fire and to analyze large fire initiation and spread through source-sink ratio and fire potential index. Crown fire activity was estimated and used to identify potential spotting-emission hazardous stands. The results revealed considerable variation in fire risk causative factors among and within HVRAs. Exposure levels across HVRAs were mainly related to the combined effects of anthropic ignition locations, fuels, topography and weather conditions. We discuss the potential of fire management strategies such as prioritizing mitigation treatment and fire ignition prevention monitoring, informed by fine-scale geospatial quantitative risk assessment outcomes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain

2015

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“…Moreover, at landscape scale the outcome of fuel treatments is also determined by variables that are independent of treatment objectives such as proximity to ignition sources and to managed areas. This highlights the advantage of simulation methods capable of modeling how spatial allocation rules affect treatment efficacy through time (Ager et al 2014a). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The increase in burned area over the past three decades (Westerling 2016) is especially apparent on western U.S. national forests where large fire-prone landscapes are juxtaposed with expanding wildland urban interfaces (WUI), and federal land management restricts fuel management in some areas to protect biodiversity and other amenities (Williams 2013, Ager et al 2014a, North et al 2015. The WUI expansion and increase in highly valued resources that are susceptible to fire have led to an increase in landscape wildfire risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA

Barros¹,

Ager²,

Day³

et al. 2017

E&S

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ABSTRACT. We use the simulation model Envision to analyze long-term wildfire dynamics and the effects of different fuel management scenarios in central Oregon, USA. We simulated a 50-year future where fuel management activities were increased by doubling and tripling the current area treated while retaining existing treatment strategies in terms of spatial distribution and treatment type. We modeled forest succession using a state-and-transition approach and simulated wildfires based on the contemporary fire regime of the region. We tested for the presence of temporal trends and overall differences in burned area among four fuel management scenarios. Results showed that when the forest was managed to reduce fuels it burned less: over the course of 50 years there was up to a 40% reduction in area burned. However, simulation outputs did not reveal the expected temporal trend, i.e., area burned did not decrease progressively with time, nor did the absence of management lead to its increase. These results can be explained as the consequence of an existing wildfire deficit and vegetation succession paths that led to closed canopy, and heavy fuels forest types that are unlikely to burn under average fire weather. Fire (and management) remained relatively rare disturbances and, given our assumptions, were unable to alter long-term vegetation patterns and consequently unable to alter long-term wildfire dynamics. Doubling and tripling current management targets were effective in the near term but not sustainable through time because of a scarcity of stands eligible to treat according to the modeled management constraints. These results provide new insights into the long-term dynamics between fuel management programs and wildfire and demonstrate that treatment prioritization strategies have limited effect on fire activity if they are too narrowly focused on particular forest conditions.

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“…There are very few recent publications that describe FMDSS that fire managers can use to help decide how they might best allocate their prevention resources to reduce human-caused fire occurrence, and publications that deal with the enforcement aspect of prevention are notable for their absence. [15]), it is surprising that a search of the recent literature revealed no publications that build on the early efforts of Heineke and Weissenberger (1974) [16] who explored the properties of optimal deterrence policies.…”

Section: Preventionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Recent Forest and Wildland Fire Management Decision Support Systems Research

Martell

2015

Curr Forestry Rep

100

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This is a review of recent efforts to develop and implement forest and wildland fire management decision support systems (FMDSS) that fire managers can use to enhance their management of their fire suppression activities. Fire managers need to resolve complex decisions associated with fuel management, fire prevention, detection, the suppression of potentially destructive wildfires and the use of prescribed fire to achieve an appropriate balance between the beneficial and detrimental social, economic and ecological impacts of fire on flammable landscapes, often under considerable uncertainty. This review focuses on the use of operational research and management science (OR/MS) methods to address their suppression resource management decision support needs.

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Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests

Cited by 71 publications

References 28 publications

A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain

A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain

Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA

A Review of Recent Forest and Wildland Fire Management Decision Support Systems Research

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