Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars

Mason, T. David; Weingarten, Joseph P.; Fett, Patrick J.

doi:10.2307/449218

Cited by 41 publications

(93 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…At the same time, foreign intervention is also associated with longer conflict when it is not strong enough to culminate in decisive victory. Numerous empirical studies support this argument (for example, Pearson, 1974;Mason, Weingarten, and Fett, 1999;Elbadawi and Sambanis, 2000;Regan, 1998Regan, , 2002.…”

Section: External Intervention Rivalries and Civil War Durationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Expectations, Rivalries, and Civil War Duration

Akcinaroglu

Radziszewski

2005

International Interactions

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Section: External Intervention Rivalries and Civil War Durationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Expectations, Rivalries, and Civil War Duration

Akcinaroglu

Radziszewski

2005

International Interactions

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“…Scholars have focused on a variety of factors affecting the stability of peace settlements, including the post-Cold War system, 12 previous regime type of the countries in con ict, 13 the strength of the warring parties' forces, 14 the role of ethnicity in con icts, 15 and the costs of con icts. 16 Generally speaking, however, scholars have not sought to test the effects on postwar stability of a group of variables that, taken together, could be said to constitute the settlement environment.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables

Hartzell¹,

Hoddie²,

Rothchild³

2001

Int Org

268

148

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: these and other civil wars have posed seemingly intractable challenges to policymakers, scholars, and human rights groups seeking to put an end to such deadly con icts. In the wake of negotiated settlements to civil wars, one of the thorniest problems involves reassuring people who have been "killing one another with considerable enthusiasm and success" that con ict is not about to break out again, endangering people's lives.1 Those concerned with the implementation and ultimate success of negotiated settlements have debated how best to enhance the prospects of a stable peace. What arrangements, if any, can be used to persuade communities that intergroup relations will take place in a climate of relative security? Are there any mechanisms the international community might employ to discourage the resumption of violence? Is an enduring peace settlement more likely in certain environments than in others? In this research note we explore variables that help to explain the longevity of negotiated peace settlements.Analysts and policymakers interested in helping to foster a stable peace have focused on such variables as the international arena, institutional choice, the characteristics of civil con icts, the role of third parties, the process of implementation, and the principal issue (identity or politico-economic) at stake in the con ict. There is no question that this research has proven useful in terms of sensitizing scholars and practitioners to the types of factors that may have an impact on postcon ict conditions. In fact, although this emphasis on issues of post-civil war stability is fairly recent, enough work on the subject has been done to make it worthwhile to investigate systematically the in uence of key variables Our thanks to Fritz Gaenslen and David Lewis for their comments on various drafts of the article, and to James Spriggs II for his help with methodological issues. We gratefully acknowledge the research assistance of Laila Buoniconti and the Paul H. Rhoads Teaching and Professional Development Fund of Gettysburg College.

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“…Mason and Fett (1996; see also Mason, Weingarten and Fett 1999) backtracked one step in the conflict process to explore the question of what factors account for whether a civil war will end in a military victory or a negotiated settlement. They drew quite explicitly on Wittman's (1979) and Stam's (1996) models of how interstate wars end.…”

Section: International Relations Theory and Ending Civil Warsmentioning

confidence: 99%