Wuhan City Lockdown and Nationwide Intensive Community Screening Are Effective in Controlling COVID-19 Epidemic: Analysis Based on a Modified SIR Model

Peng, Tailai; Liu, Xinhao; Ni, Hefeng; Cui, Zhe

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3556669

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…Lockdown is another strategy for controlling the epidemic quickly, as the Wuhan lockdown efficiently controlled the virus spread to other parts of China. However, intensive screening and social distancing are required to further restrict the local spread of the virus [14]. A strict, preplanned country-wide one-month lockdown in France showed an 83% reduction in predicated deaths, when more than one quarter of the French population was infected by COVID-19 before 19 March 2020 [15].…”

Section: Lockdownmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Stage Intelligent Smart Lockdown using SIR Model to Control COVID 19

Ghaffar¹,

Alanazi²,

Alruwaili³

et al. 2021

Intelligent Automation &Amp; Soft Computing

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Corona Virus (COVID-19) is a contagious disease. Unless an effective vaccine is available, various techniques such as lockdown, social distancing, or business Standard operating procedures (SOPs) must be implemented. Lockdown is an effective technique for controlling the spread of the virus, but it severely affects the economy of developing countries. No single technique for controlling a pandemic situation has ever returned a promising result; therefore, using a combination of techniques would be best for controlling COVID-19. The South asian association of regional corporation (SAARC), region contains populous and developing countries that have a unique social-cultural lifestyle that entails a higher rate of contact and R 0 . The per-capita income and economic conditions of these countries are dismal in comparison with those of advanced countries. With no lockdown policy, their healthcare systems would be unable to provide support. In this study, an intelligent smart lockdown strategy is proposed, which is dynamically implemented with the Susceptible, infectious, or recovered (SIR) model by calculating the R 0 value after a certain number of days to implement multi-stage lockdowns with social distancing and SOPs for conducting business. Only 4.28% of the population of SAARC countries would be affected by COVID-19 after July 22, 2021 under the proposed strategy. Nearly 38% of the population would be affected after March 8, 2021 without lockdowns, whereas 18% of the population would be affected according to the simple SIR model after May 30, 2021. Furthermore, less than 1% of the population would be affected after April 13, 2021 under full lockdown and recession. Thus, the proposed strategy shows promising long-term results for controlling COVID-19 without negatively affecting the economy.

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Section: Lockdownmentioning

confidence: 99%