This study assessed trends in the variability of soil temperature (T SOIL ) using spatially averaged observation records from Russian meteorological land stations. The contributions of surface air temperature (SAT) and snow depth (SND) to T SOIL variation were quantitatively evaluated. Composite time series of these data revealed positive trends during the period of 1921-2011, with accelerated increases since the 1970s. The T SOIL warming rate over the entire period was faster than the SAT warming rate in both permafrost and non-permafrost regions, suggesting that SND contributes to T SOIL warming. Statistical analysis revealed that the highest correlation between SND and T SOIL was in eastern Siberia, which is underlain by permafrost. SND in this region accounted for 50% or more of the observed variation in T SOIL . T SOIL in the nonpermafrost region of western Siberia was significantly correlated with changes in SAT. Thus, the main factors associated with T SOIL variation differed between permafrost and non-permafrost regions. This finding underscores the importance of including SND data when assessing historical and future variations and trends of permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere.

Abstract. This study not only examined the spatiotemporal variations of active-layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions during 1948-2006 over the terrestrial Arctic regions experiencing climate changes, but also identified the associated drivers based on observational data and a simulation conducted by a land surface model (CHANGE). The focus on the ALT extends previous studies that have emphasized ground temperatures in permafrost regions. The Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Yukon, and Mackenzie watersheds are foci of the study. Time series of ALT in Eurasian watersheds showed generally increasing trends, while the increase in ALT in North American watersheds was not significant. However, ALT in the North American watersheds has been negatively anomalous since 1990 when the Arctic air temperature entered into a warming phase. The warming temperatures were not simply expressed to increases in ALT. Since 1990 when the warming increased, the forcing of the ALT by the higher annual thawing index (ATI) in the Mackenzie and Yukon basins has been offset by the combined effects of less insulation caused by thinner snow depth and drier soil during summer. In contrast, the increasing ATI together with thicker snow depth and higher summer soil moisture in the Lena contributed to the increase in ALT. The results imply that the soil thermal and moisture regimes formed in the prethaw season(s) provide memory that manifests itself during the summer. The different ALT anomalies between Eurasian and North American watersheds highlight increased importance of the variability of hydrological variables.

Spatial variability and temporal trends of the shallow ground thermal regime and permafrost activelayer thickness (ALT) were estimated over 1963-2013 using daily soil temperature data available from stations of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the role of changing climatic conditions on the ground thermal regime. ALT data collected by the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring program in Russia were used to expand the geography of ALT observations over 1999-2013, and to identify 'hot spots' of soil temperature and ALT change. Results indicate that a substantially higher rate of change in the thermal regime of permafrost-affected soils prevailed during 1999-2013, relative to the last fifty years. Results indicate that the thermal regime of the upper permafrost in western Russia is strongly associated with air temperature, with much weaker relationships in central and eastern Russia. The thermal regime of permafrost-affected soils shows stronger dependence on climatic conditions over the last fifteen years relative to the historical 50-year period. Geostatistical analysis revealed that the cities of Norilsk and Susuman are hot spots of permafrost degradation. Of six settlements selected for detailed analysis in various parts of the permafrost regions, all but one (Chukotka), show substantial changes in the shallow ground thermal regime. Northern locations in the continuous permafrost region show thickening of the active layer, while those farther south experienced development of residual thaw layers above the permafrost and decreases in the duration of the freezing period.

Abstract. A realistic simulation of snow cover and its thermal properties are important for accurate modelling of permafrost. We analyse simulated relationships between air and near-surface (20 cm) soil temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region during winter, with a particular focus on snow insulation effects in nine land surface models, and compare them with observations from 268 Russian stations. There are large cross-model differences in the simulated differences between near-surface soil and air temperatures (ΔT; 3 to 14 °C), in the sensitivity of soil-to-air temperature (0.13 to 0.96 °C °C−1), and in the relationship between ΔT and snow depth. The observed relationship between ΔT and snow depth can be used as a metric to evaluate the effects of each model's representation of snow insulation, hence guide improvements to the model's conceptual structure and process parameterisations. Models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes and consider complex snow processes. Some models show poor performance in representing snow insulation due to underestimation of snow depth and/or overestimation of snow conductivity. Generally, models identified as most acceptable with respect to snow insulation simulate reasonable areas of near-surface permafrost (13.19 to 15.77 million km2). However, there is not a simple relationship between the sophistication of the snow insulation in the acceptable models and the simulated area of Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost, because several other factors, such as soil depth used in the models, the treatment of soil organic matter content, hydrology and vegetation cover, also affect the simulated permafrost distribution.

Climate warming has significant impacts on permafrost, infrastructure and soil organic carbon at the northern high latitudes. These impacts are mainly driven by changes in soil temperature (T S ). Snow insulation can cause significant differences between T S and air temperature (T A ), and our understanding about this effect through space and time is currently limited. In this study, we compiled soil and air temperature observations (measured at about 0.2 m depth and 2 m height, respectively) at 588 sites from climate stations and boreholes across the northern high latitudes. Analysis of this circumpolar dataset demonstrates the large offset between mean T S and T A in the low arctic and northern boreal regions. The offset decreases both northward and southward due to changes in snow conditions. Correlation analysis shows that the coupling between annual T S and T A is weaker, and the response of annual T S to changes in T A is smaller in boreal regions than in the arctic and the northern temperate regions. Consequently, the inter-annual variation and the increasing trends of annual T S are smaller than that of T A in boreal regions. The systematic and significant differences in the relationship between T S and T A across the circumpolar north is important for understanding and assessing the impacts of climate change and for reconstruction of historical climate based on ground temperature profiles for the northern high latitudes.