Abstract. Climate change is leading to a disproportionately large warming in the high northern latitudes, but the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of the Arctic are highly uncertain. Using 40 terrestrial biosphere models for Alaska, we provide a baseline of terrestrial carbon cycle structural and parametric uncertainty, defined as the multi-model standard deviation (σ) against the mean (x) for each quantity. Mean annual uncertainty (σ/x) was largest for net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (−0.01± 0.19 kg C m−2 yr−1), then net primary production (NPP) (0.14 ± 0.33 kg C m−2 yr−1), autotrophic respiration (Ra) (0.09 ± 0.20 kg C m−2 yr−1), gross primary production (GPP) (0.22 ± 0.50 kg C m−2 yr−1), ecosystem respiration (Re) (0.23 ± 0.38 kg C m−2 yr−1), CH4 flux (2.52 ± 4.02 g CH4 m−2 yr−1), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (0.14 ± 0.20 kg C m−2 yr−1), and soil carbon (14.0± 9.2 kg C m−2). The spatial patterns in regional carbon stocks and fluxes varied widely with some models showing NEE for Alaska as a strong carbon sink, others as a strong carbon source, while still others as carbon neutral. Additionally, a feedback (i.e., sensitivity) analysis was conducted of 20th century NEE to CO2 fertilization (β) and climate (γ), which showed that uncertainty in γ was 2x larger than that of β, with neither indicating that the Alaskan Arctic is shifting towards a certain net carbon sink or source. Finally, AmeriFlux data are used at two sites in the Alaskan Arctic to evaluate the regional patterns; observed seasonal NEE was captured within multi-model uncertainty. This assessment of carbon cycle uncertainties may be used as a baseline for the improvement of experimental and modeling activities, as well as a reference for future trajectories in carbon cycling with climate change in the Alaskan Arctic.

Tibetan permafrost largely formed during the late Pleistocene glacial period and shrank in the Holocene Thermal Maximum period. Quantifying the impacts of paleoclimatic extremes on soil carbon stock can shed light on the vulnerability of permafrost carbon in the future. Here, we synthesize data from 1114 sites across the Tibetan permafrost region to report that paleoclimate is more important than modern climate in shaping current permafrost carbon distribution, and its importance increases with soil depth, mainly through forming the soilʼs physiochemical properties. We derive a new estimate of modern soil carbon stock to 3 m depth by including the paleoclimate effects, and find that the stock ($${\mathrm{36}}{\mathrm{.6}}_{{\mathrm{ - 2}}{\mathrm{.4}}}^{{\mathrm{ + 2}}.3}$$ 36 .6 -2 .4 +2 . 3 PgC) is triple that predicted by ecosystem models (11.5 ± 4.2 s.e.m PgC), which use pre-industrial climate to initialize the soil carbon pool. The discrepancy highlights the urgent need to incorporate paleoclimate information into model initialization for simulating permafrost soil carbon stocks.

Abstract. This study investigated differences in the magnitude and partitioning of the carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances in an age sequence of four white pine (Pinus strobus L.) afforestation stands (7, 20, 35 and 70 years old as of 2009) in southern Ontario, Canada. The 4-year (2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008) mean annual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchanges, based on biometric and eddy covariance data, were combined with the 2-year means of static chamber measurements of methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes (2006)(2007) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export below 1 m soil depth (2004)(2005). The total ecosystem C pool increased with age from 46 to 197 t C ha −1 across the four stands. Rates of organic matter cycling (i.e. litterfall and decomposition) were similar among the three older stands. In contrast, considerable differences related to stand age and site quality were observed in the magnitude and partitioning of individual CO 2 fluxes, showing a peak in production and respiration rates in the middle-age (20-year-old) stand growing on fertile postagricultural soil. The DOC export accounted for 10 % of net ecosystem production (NEP) at the 7-year-old stand but < 2 % at the three older stands. The GHG balance from the combined exchanges of CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O was 2.6, 21.6, 13.5 and 4.8 t CO 2 equivalent ha −1 year −1 for the 7-, 20-, 35-and 70-year-old stands, respectively. The maximum annual contribution from the combined exchanges of CH 4 and N 2 O to the GHG balance was 13 and 8 % in the 7-and 70-year-old stands, respectively, but < 1 % in the two highly productive middle-age (20-and 35-year-old) stands. Averaged over the entire age sequence, the CO 2 exchange was the main driver of the GHG balance in these forests. The cumulative CO 2 sequestration over the 70 years was estimated at 129 t C and 297 t C ha −1 year −1 for stands growing on low-and high-productivity sites, respectively. This study highlights the importance of accounting for age and site quality effects on forest C and GHG balances. It further demonstrates a large potential for net C sequestration and climate benefits gained through afforestation of marginal agricultural and fallow lands in temperate regions.

Abstract. Meteorological measurements in the Walnut Gulch catchment in Arizona were used to synthesize a distributed, hourly-average time series of data across a 26.9 by 12.5 km area with a grid resolution of 480 m for a continuous 18-month period which included two seasons of monsoonal rainfall. Coupled surface-atmosphere model runs established the acceptability (for modelling purposes) of assuming uniformity in all meteorological variables other than rainfall. Rainfall was interpolated onto the grid from an array of 82 recording rain gauges. These meteorological data were used as forcing variables for an equivalent array of stand-alone Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) models to describe the evolution of soil moisture and surface energy fluxes in response to the prevalent, heterogeneous pattern of convective precipitation. The calculated area-average behaviour was compared with that given by a single aggregate BATS simulation forced with area-average meteorological data. Heterogeneous rainfall gives rise to significant but partly compensating differences in the transpiration and the intercepted rainfall components of total evaporation during rain storms. However, the calculated area-average surface energy fluxes given by the two simulations in rain-free conditions with strong heterogeneity in soil moisture were always close to identical, a result which is independent of whether default or site-specific vegetation and soil parameters were used. Because the spatial variability in soil moisture throughout the catchment has the same order of magnitude as the amount of rain falling in a typical convective storm (commonly 10% of the vegetation's root zone saturation) in a semi-arid environment, non-linearity in the relationship between transpiration and the soil moisture available to the vegetation has limited influence on area-average surface fluxes.

Abstract. This study investigated differences in the magnitude and partitioning of the carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances in an age-sequence of four white pine (Pinus strobus L.) afforestation stands (7, 20, 35 and 70 years old as of 2009) in southern Ontario, Canada. The 4 year (2004–2008) mean annual carbon dioxide (CO2) exchanges, based on biometric and eddy covariance data, were combined with the 2-year means of static chamber measurements of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes (2006–2007) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export below 1 m soil depth (2004–2005). The total ecosystem C pool increased with age from 9 to 160 t C ha−1 across the four stands. Rates of organic matter cycling (i.e. litter-fall and decomposition) were similar among the three older stands. In contrast, considerable differences related to stand age and site quality were observed in the magnitude and partitioning of individual CO2 fluxes showing a peak in production and respiration rates in the middle-age (20 year-old) stand growing on fertile post-agricultural soil. The DOC export accounted for 10% of net ecosystem production (NEP) at the 7 year old stand but < 2% at the three older stands. The GHG balance from the combined exchanges of CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes was 2.6, 21.6, 13.5 and 4.8 t CO2 eq ha−1 yr−1 for the 7, 20, 35, and 70 year-old stands, respectively. The maximum annual contribution from the combined exchanges of CH4, N2O and DOC to the GHG balance was 8% and 15% in the 7 and 70 year-old stands, respectively, but < 1% in the two highly productive middle-age (20 and 35 year-old) stands. Averaged over the entire age-sequence, the CO2 exchange was the main driver of the GHG balance in these forests. The cumulative CO2 sequestration over the 70 years was estimated at 129 \\unit{t} C and 297 t C ha−1 yr−1 for stands growing on low and high productive sites, respectively. This study highlights the importance of accounting for age and site quality effects on forest C and GHG balances. It further demonstrates a large potential for C sequestration and climate benefits (i.e. cooling effect) gained through afforestation of marginal agricultural and fallow lands in temperate regions.