Objective To assess the mortality currently associated with smoking in Hong Kong, and, since cigarette consumption reached its peak 20 years earlier in Hong Kong than in mainland China, to predict mortality in China 20 years hence. Design Case-control study. Past smoking habits of all Chinese adults in Hong Kong who died in 1998 (cases) were sought from those registering the death. Setting All the death registries in Hong Kong. Participants 27 507 dead cases (81% of all registered deaths) and 13 054 live controls aged >35 years. Main outcome measures Mortality from all causes and from specific causes. Results In men aged 35-69 the adjusted risk ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) comparing smokers with non-smokers were 1.92 (1.70 to 2.16) for all deaths, 2.22 (1.94 to 2.55) for neoplastic deaths, 2.60 (2.10 to 3.21) for respiratory deaths (including tuberculosis, risk ratio 2.54), and 1.68 (1.43 to 1.97) for vascular deaths (each P < 0.0001). In women aged 35-69 the corresponding risk ratios were 1.62 (1.40 to 1.88) for all deaths, 1.60 (1.33 to 1.93) for neoplastic deaths, 3.13 (2.21 to 4.44) for respiratory deaths, and 1.55 (1.20 to 1.99) for vascular deaths (each P < 0.001). If these associations with smoking are largely or wholly causal then, among all registered deaths at ages 35-69 in 1998, tobacco caused about 33% (2534/7588) of all male deaths and 5% (169/3341) of all female deaths (hence 25% of all deaths at these ages). At older ages tobacco seemed to be the cause of 15% (3017/20 420) of all deaths. Conclusions Among middle aged men the proportion of deaths caused by smoking is more than twice as big in Hong Kong now (33%) as in mainland China 10 years earlier. This supports predictions of a large increase in tobacco attributable mortality in China as a whole.

SUMMARYWe systematically reviewed the current understanding of human population immunity against SARS-CoV in different groups, settings and geography. Our meta-analysis, which included all identified studies except those on wild animal handlers, yielded an overall seroprevalence of 0 . 10% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0 . 02-0 . 18]. Health-care workers and others who had close contact with SARS patients had a slightly higher degree of seroconversion (0 . 23%, 95 % CI 0 . 02-0 . 45) compared to healthy blood donors, others from the general community or non-SARS patients recruited from the health-care setting (0 . 16%, 95% CI 0-0 . 37). When analysed by the two broad classes of testing procedures, it is clear that serial confirmatory test protocols resulted in a much lower estimate (0 . 050%, 95 % CI 0-0 . 15) than single test protocols (0 . 20 %, 95% CI 0 . 06-0 . 34). Potential epidemiological and laboratory pitfalls are also discussed as they may give rise to false or inconsistent results in measuring the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV.

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A total of 1,068 asymptomatic close contacts of patients with severe acute respiratory (SARS) from the 2003 epidemic in Hong Kong were serologically tested, and 2 (0.19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus.

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