Prediction of the solar cycle is challenging but essential because it drives space weather. Several predictions with varying amplitudes of the ongoing Cycle 25 have been made. We show that an aspect of the Waldmeier effect (WE2), i.e. a strong positive correlation between the rise rate and the amplitude of the cycle, has a physical link with the build-up of the previous cycle’s polar field after its reversal. We find that the rise rate of the polar field is highly correlated with the rise rate and the amplitude of the next solar cycle. Thus, the prediction of the amplitude of the solar cycle can be made just a few years after the reversal of the previous cycle’s polar field, thereby extending the scope of the solar cycle prediction to much earlier than the usual time. Our prediction of Cycle 25 based on the rise rate of the previous polar field is 137 ± 23, which is quite close to the prediction 138 ± 26 based on the WE2 computed from the available 2 years sunspot data of the ongoing cycle.

A striking feature of the solar cycle is that at the beginning, sunspots appear around mid-latitudes, and over time the latitudes of emergences migrate towards the equator. The maximum level of activity varies from cycle to cycle. For strong cycles, the activity begins early and at higher latitudes with wider sunspot distributions than for weak cycles. The activity and the width of sunspot belts increase rapidly and begin to decline when the belts are still at high latitudes. However, in the late stages of the cycles, the level of activity, and properties of the butterfly wings all have the same statistical properties independent of the peak strength of the cycles. We have modelled these features using Babcock-Leighton type dynamo model and shown that the toroidal flux loss from the solar interior due to magnetic buoyancy is an essential nonlinearity that leads to all the cycles decline in the same way.

Solar activity has a cyclic nature with the ≈11-year Schwabe cycle dominating its variability on the interannual timescale. However, solar cycles are significantly modulated in length, shape and magnitude, from near-spotless grand minima to very active grand maxima. The ≈400-year-long direct sunspot-number series is inhomogeneous in quality and too short to study robust parameters of long-term solar variability. The cosmogenic-isotope proxy extends the timescale to twelve millennia and provides crucial observational constraints of the long-term solar dynamo modulation. Here, we present a brief up-to-date overview of the long-term variability of solar activity at centennial – millennial timescales. The occurrence of grand minima and maxima is discussed as well as the existing quasi-periodicities such as centennial Gleissberg, 210-year Suess/de Vries and 2400-year Hallstatt cycles. It is shown that the solar cycles contain an important random component and have no clock-like phase locking implying a lack of long-term memory. A brief yet comprehensive review of the theoretical perspectives to explain the observed features in the framework of the dynamo models is presented, including the nonlinearity and stochastic fluctuations in the dynamo. We keep gaining knowledge of the processes driving solar variability with the new data acquainted and new models developed.

The polar field reversal is a crucial process in the cyclic evolution of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun. Various important characteristics of a solar cycle, such as its duration and strength, and also the cycle predictability, are determined by the polar field reversal time. While the regular measurements of solar magnetic field have been accumulated for more than half a century, there is no consensus in the heliophysics community concerning the interpretation of the Sun’s polar field measurements and especially the determination of polar field reversal time. There exists a severe problem of non-reproducibility in the reported results even from studies of the same observational data set, and this causes an obstacle to make more accurate forecasts of solar cycle. Here, we analyze the solar magnetograms from four instruments for the last four cycles, to provide a more correct interpretation of the polar field observations and to find more accurate time of the reversals. We show the absence of triple (multipolar) reversals in Cycles 21 – 24, significant variations in the time interval between reversals in the hemispheres and in the time interval between a reversal and a cycle beginning. In order to understand the origin of the reversal time variation, we perform Surface Flux Transport (SFT) simulations and find out that the presence of the ‘anomalous’ bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) in different phases of a cycle can cause cycle-to-cycle variations of the reversal time within the similar range found in observations.