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AяѠѡџюѐѡ.-The continental scaup population (Lesser [Aythya affi nis] and Greater [A. marila] combined) has declined markedly since 1978. One hypothesis for the population decline states that reproductive success has decreased because female scaup are arriving on breeding areas in poorer body condition than they did historically (i.e. spring condition hypothesis). We tested one aspect of that hypothesis by comparing body mass and nutrient reserves (lipid, protein, and mineral) of Lesser Scaup at four locations (Louisiana, Illinois, Minnesota, and Manitoba) between the 1980s and 2000s. We found that mean body mass and lipid and mineral reserves of females were 80.0, 52.5, and 3.0 g higher, respectively, in the 2000s than in the 1980s in Louisiana; similarly, body mass and lipid and mineral reserves of males were 108.8, 72.5, and 2.5 g higher, respectively. In Illinois, mean body mass and lipid reserves of females were 88.6 and 56.5 g higher, respectively, in the 2000s than in the 1980s; similarly, body mass and lipid and mineral reserves of males were 80.6, 76.0, and 2.7 g higher, respectively. Mean body mass of females were 58.5 and 58.9 g lower in the 2000s than in the 1980s in Minnesota and Manitoba, respectively; mean body mass of males, similarly, were 40.7 g lower in Minnesota. Mean lipid reserves of females in the 2000s were 28.8 and 27.8 g lower than those in the 1980s in Minnesota and Manitoba, respectively. Mean mineral reserves of females in the 2000s were 3.2 g lower than those in the 1980s in Manitoba. Consequently, females arriving to breed in Manitoba in the 2000s had accumulated lipid reserves for 4.1 fewer eggs and mineral reserves for 0.8 fewer eggs than those arriving to breed there in the 1980s. Accordingly, our results are consistent with the spring condition hypothesis and suggest that female body condition has declined, as refl ected by decreases in body mass, lipids, and mineral reserves that could cause reductions in reproductive success and ultimately a population decline.
The unwitting inclusion of convergent characters in phylogenetic estimates poses a serious problem for efforts to recover phylogeny. Convergence is not inscrutable, however, particularly when one group of characters tracks phylogeny and another set tracks adaptive history. In such cases, convergent characters may be correlated with one or a few functional anatomical units and readily identifiable by using comparative methods. Stifftail ducks (Oxyurinae) offer one such opportunity to study correlated character evolution and function in the context of phylogenetic reconstruction. Morphological analyses place stifftail ducks as part of a large clade of diving ducks that includes the sea ducks (Mergini), Hymenolaimus, Merganetta, and Tachyeres, and possibly the pochards (Aythyini). Molecular analyses, on the other hand, place stifftails far from other diving ducks and suggest, moreover, that stifftails are polyphyletic. Mitochondrial cytochrome b gene sequences of eight stifftail species traditionally supposed to form a clade were compared with each other and with sequences from 50 other anseriform and galliform species. Stifftail ducks are not the sister group of sea ducks but lie outside the typical ducks (Anatinae). Of the four traditional stifftail genera, monophyly of Oxyura and its sister group relationship with Nomonyx are strongly supported. Heteronetta probably is the sister group of that clade, but support is weak. Biziura is not a true stifftail. Within Oxyura, Old World species (O. australis, O. leucocephala, O. maccoa) appear to form a clade, with New World species (O. jamaicensis, O. vittata) branching basally. Incongruence between molecules and morphology is interpreted to be the result of adaptive specialization and functional convergence in the hind limbs of Biziura and true stifftails. When morphological characters are divided into classes, only hind-limb characters are significantly in conflict with the molecular tree. Likewise, null models of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitution based on patterns of codon-degeneracy and chemical dissimilarity indicate that the nucleotide and amino acid changes postulated by the molecular tree are more plausible than those postulated by the morphological tree. These findings teach general lessons about the utility of highly adaptive characters (in particular those related to foraging ecology) and underscore the problems that convergence can pose for attempts to recover phylogeny. They also demonstrate how the concept of natural data partitions and simple models of evolution (e.g., parsimony, likelihood, neutrality) can be used to test the accuracy of independent phylogenetic estimates and provide arguments in favor of one tree topology over another.
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