Bosnia-Herzegovina and Republic of Croatia share 931km of border (494km land and 425km riverine), which has been contentious for the greater part of the modern European history and represented one of the hardest and most-militarized border demarcating the frontiers of the major empires. Nowadays, it is in the process of becoming another hard-border between the Schengen-Zone EU and non-EU Western Balkans. In this study we are considering several strategic elements required for planning of effective and constructive border security, while countering variety of pseudo-hybrid warfare operations as well as tactical considerations when responding to crisis, communications and overall control of the fluid frontier. Strategic elements taken into consideration are: a) overall contiguity of the border, b) communications network / trafficability at border-crossing and c) geospatial support in the intelligence preparation of the area. Tactical elements considered are a) real-time geospatial support during operations b) alternative communications and vetting of alternative communications c) defensive operations (e.g. drone defense, jamming defense, incursion prevention). We are considering lessons-learned from the hostilities and frozen-conflicts in Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Yemen and potential future conflagrations in Trans-Dnistria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo* and the Baltics. We are using several criteria in understanding the required geospatial preparations required to undertake or defend against mass-migrations and potential hybrid threats such as unresolved territorial issues, population density information, infrastructure condition, land-use and overall completeness and availability of geospatial data. * Designation without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence
Bosnia-Herzegovina and southern-coastal/hinterland-region of Dalmatia, Republic of Croatia are a part of the same seismo-tectonic province and share a considerable and real threat of high-magnitude earthquakes. Numerous Magnitude 6 (Richter) and above earthquakes have been recorded in the past 500 years and some of them have resulted in a considerable loss of life, material and even prestige or geopolitical significance (e.g. the demise of Ragusa in the earthquake of 1667). Given the propensity of the region for destructive earthquakes, complex geomorphological framework and challenging infrastructure, still recovering in parts from the Yugoslav civil wars of the 1990s., the region may yield a “perfect” crisis in the aftermath of a major earthquake event. Taking into consideration unchecked development of several metropolitan areas, lack of oversight and permitting, decaying infrastructure as well as unresolved political ambiguities and territorial disputes, a potential destructive earthquake may create several cascading crises, especially if it coincides with some other challenging events (e.g. winter storms). This study is taking into consideration several scenarios, their possible effects and resulting conditions upon which cascading crises may arise in the aftermath of a magnitude 7+ earthquake affecting several major urban areas in southern and central Bosnia-Herzegovina and the southern Dalmatian region of Croatia. These scenarios are intended to provide training aids and risk assessments in countering the destructive forces after the earthquake, expected to test the current crisis-management models.
The Penal-Correctional Institution of the Enclosed Type in Zenica (Kazneno-popravni zavod zatvorenog tipa Zenica), Bosnia-Herzegovina, has been in continuous operation for over 130 years and is currently the largest and most-diverse penal institution in the country. With 714 inmates serving lengthy sentences (up to 40 years) for the variety of serious offenses (including terrorism), the issue of narcotics use, traffic and trade has been encountered and countered, particularly in the last decade. The types of drugs encountered in the institution range from prescription drugs (i.e. buprenorphine, methadone), to "heavy" narcotics (i.e. heroin, morphine, speed. The type, quantity and frequency of drug use and seizure shows certain seasonal and temporal effects and is associated with the inmate-furlough periods, awarded for good behavior. Many inmates use this privilege to bring narcotics into the facility. Some of the encountered substances have been seized from the facility visitors and even from the prison staff, in the past five years, but the charges have been generally dismissed by the prosecutors for the lack of evidence. An average seizure is about ten grams per incident, and the number of seizures has been continuous, suggesting considerable financial interest and gain for the drugs to enter the institution. There are various measures proposed to counter the traffic and limit the purchases, however the inmate population is very apt in using the current legal regulations and EU-mandates to circumvent the proposed countermeasures. This study is presenting some of the findings, directions and recommendations for combating the drug-traffic within the correctional institution.
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