This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign exchange rate (EXR) and openness (OPN) in Nigeria from 1981 to 2013. The paper employed Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillip-Perron technique in testing the unit root property of the series, Granger causality test of causation between the variables, Engel-Granger ECM technique in testing the long run adjustment speed of the model, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test of heteroskedasticity, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation test, Ramsey RESET test of mis-specification, Chow Breakpoint test, after which Jarge-Bera test of normality. The results of the OLS revealed that foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign exchange rate (EXR) and openness (OPN) impacted positively on economic growth (GDP) in the Nigeria. The results of unit root suggest that all the variables in the model are stationary at first difference d(1). The results of Causality suggested that one-way causation existed between economic growth (INGDP) and foreign direct investment (INFDI) but the causation runs from economic growth (INGDP) to foreign direct investment (INFDI) implying that GDP can cause FDI but not the other way round. One-way causation also existed between economic growth (INGDP) and openness (OPN) but the causation runs from openness (OPN) to economic growth (INGDP) implying also that OPN can cause GDP but not the other way round. The result further indicated that no causation existed between exchange rates (EXR) and economic growth (INGDP), openness (OPN) as well as foreign direct investment (INFDI), no causation existed between openness (OPN) and foreign direct investment (INFDI). The ECM result revealed the existence of long run relationship between economic growth (INGDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign exchange rate (EXR) and openness (OPN). The speed of adjustment was found to be at least three years for the long run equilibrium. This paper found that, there is no serial correlation among the error values, no misspecification of the model, and also that the variables of the are not stable throughout the period of the study and the break was found to be 1999 when the current democratic dispensation started. The result further revealed that the residuals of the model are normally distributed which make it possible for the results of this paper be used for policy purposes. In conclusion, this paper found a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment in Nigeria. Therefore, this paper recommends that concerted effort be made by policy makers and relevant authorities to formulate policies aim at creating a conducive investment environment so that Nigeria can be better destination for foreign investment Policy makers should also take step to ensuring foreign exchange stability and increase openness of the economy so as to achieve meaningful economic growth.
The interrelationship between the real, monetary, fiscal, and external sectors of the Nigerian economy is an issue of concern, as it will provide policymakers with insight on which of the sectors is potent in influencing output in the real sector, which little or no attention was given. This study, therefore, examines the interrelationships between these sectors in Nigeria between 2010Q1 and 2021Q1. Structural Equation Model (SEM) was employed. The study finds that monetary and fiscal sectors have a positive influence on the real sector output, while the external sector has a negative influence on the real sector output in Nigeria. It was found that only the monetary sector influenced real sector output significantly. This study recommends effective collaboration between the monetary and fiscal authorities in stimulating aggregate demand, boosting economic activities, and spurring economic growth in Nigeria using money supply, and external and domestic debt.
obtained from CBN statistical bulletin from 1990Q1 to 2019Q4. Monetary policy was proxied by monetary policy rate (MPR), prime lending rate (PLR), maximum lending rate (MLR), and treasury bills rate (TBR). The study employed Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) in analysis. It was found that monetary policy rate, prime lending rate, maximum lending rate, and treasury bills rate impacted positively on inflation in Nigeria. It was also found that industrial output impacted negatively on inflation, implying that an increase in industrial output will lead to a reduction in inflation in Nigeria. The study also found that industrial output played a partial mediation on the relationship between prime lending rate (PLR), maximum lending rate (MLR), and inflation but a complete mediation was found for industrial output on the relationship between monetary policy rates (MPR), treasury bills rate (TBR) and inflation in Nigeria. The study concluded that when industrial output is used as a mediator variable, on the relationship between monetary policy and inflation; monetary policy can effectively reduce inflation indirectly by boosting industrial output or production. The study recommends that to achieve the monetary policy objective of price stability, the monetary authority should reduce MPR, PLR, MLR, and TBR to boost industrial output, as industrial output has the potential of reducing the inflation rate in Nigeria.
The desire to improve financial inclusion and achieve higher productivity in the world is becoming increasingly high in recent times. This study examines the asymmetric effect of financial inclusion proxy by the volume of automated teller machines, point of sale, mobile banking pay, and cheques on agricultural output in Nigeria. Quarterly data between 2010Q1 and 2021Q4 was sourced from the Nigerian Inter-Bank Settlement System Plc (NIBSS) and the CBN statistical bulletin 2021. The non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (NARDL) model and Stepwise Least Squares (STEPLS) were employed in the estimation. The study reveals that financial inclusion positively and significantly affect agricultural output in Nigeria, especially when proxy by the automated teller machine and point of sale. Therefore, we recommend that to achieve improved agricultural output, government and monetary authority should increase the spread of Automated Teller machines and Point of Sales, especially in the villages where agriculture is their major occupation. Also, we recommend the need to improve internet access in the rural areas of the country. This could boost agricultural output and create employment for the citizenry.
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