Phytoplankton phenology (the timing of seasonal events) is a commonly used indicator for evaluating responses of marine ecosystems to climate change. However, phenological metrics are vulnerable to observation-(bloom amplitude, missing data, and observational noise) and analysis-related (temporal resolution, preprocessing technique, and phenology metric) processes. Here we consider the impact of these processes on the robustness of four phenology metrics (timing of maximum, 5% above median, maximum growth rate, and 15% of cumulative distribution). We apply a simulation-testing approach, where a phenology metric is first determined from a noise-and gap-free time series, and again once it has been modified. We show that precision is a greater concern than accuracy for many of these metrics, an important point that has been hereto overlooked in the literature. The variability in precision between phenology metrics is substantial, but it can be improved by the use of preprocessing techniques (e.g., gap-filling or smoothing). Furthermore, there are important differences in the inherent variability of the metrics that may be crucial in the interpretation of studies based upon them. Of the considered metrics, the 15% of cumulative distribution metric best satisfies the precision criteria. However, the 5% above median metric is comparable in terms of precision and exhibits more inherent variability. We emphasize that the choice of phenology metric should be determined by the specific nature of the question being asked. We believe these findings to be useful to the current discussion on phenology metrics of phytoplankton dynamics.

The southwestern Norwegian Sea is characterized by an inflow of warm and saline Atlantic water from the southwest and cold and less saline East Icelandic Water (EIW), of Arctic origin, from the northwest. These two water masses meet and form the Iceland-Faroe Front (IFF). In this region, the copepod Calanus finmarchicus plays a key role in the pelagic ecosystem. Time-series of C. finmarchicus and Calanus hyperboreus in May and September, extending back to the early 1990s, were studied in relation to phytoplankton bloom dynamics and hydrography. The main reproductive period of C. finmarchicus started consistently earlier south of the IFF, resulting in different life cycles and stage compositions in the two water masses. In 2003, a sudden shift occurred north of the IFF, resulting in a similar phenology pattern to south of the IFF. Before this, only one generation of C. finmarchicus was produced in the Arctic water, but the earlier reproduction enabled the species to produce two generations after 2003. Simultaneously, C. hyperboreus, an expatriate in the EIW, largely disappeared. Food availability is unlikely the reason for the phenological differences observed across the front, as the typical pattern of the phytoplankton spring bloom showed an earlier onset north of the IFF. Temperature and salinity peaked at record high values in 2003 and 2004, and therefore possible links to oceanography are discussed. The dominant role of Calanus spp. and the potential linkages to water mass exchanges may herald strong effects on the ecosystem and pelagic fish in this subpolar Atlantic region under expected climate change.

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Abstract. Several hypotheses have been proposed for the onset of the spring phytoplankton bloom in the North Atlantic. Our main objective is to examine which bottom-up processes can best predict the annual increase in surface phytoplankton concentration in the North Atlantic by applying novel phenology algorithms to ocean colour data. We construct indicator fields and time series which, in various combinations, provide models consistent with the principle dynamics previously proposed. Using a multimodel inference approach, we investigate the evidence supporting these models and how it varies in space. We show that, in terms of bottom-up processes alone, there is a dominant physical mechanism, namely mixed-layer shoaling, that best predicts the interannual variation in the initial increase in surface chlorophyll across large sectors of the North Atlantic. We further show that different regions are governed by different physical phenomena and that wind-driven mixing is a common component, with either heat flux or light as triggers. We believe these findings to be relevant to the ongoing discussion on North Atlantic bloom onset.

Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to test the hypothesis that changes in physical and biological environmental conditions affected by current climatic warming would negatively impact the euphausiid populations in the North Atlantic. Two zooplankton time series were used, one collected by the Marine Research Institute (MRI) on a transect south of Iceland during spring (1990-2011) and the other by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey (1958-2007) in the oceanic waters south of Iceland covering all months. Due to limitations of the sampling gears used, the results mainly reflect the variations of the early stages of euphausiids. On a spatial scale, results reveal a general decline of euphausiid abundance from the east coast of Greenland to the Faroe Islands. On a temporal scale, euphausiid numbers decreased in most CPR areas from 1958 to 2007. Conversely, an increase was observed in numbers of larvae during spring 1990-2011 for the shelf south of Iceland. Single variablebased GAMs indicated that phytoplankton biomass was generally the main environmental factor regulating euphausiid abundance. Multiple variable-based GAMs showed that phytoplankton biomass was the strongest predictor of euphausiid abundance in the west, whereas in the east temperature appears to be most important. In addition, the onset of the spring bloom also affected the long-term changes in euphausiid abundance. For the oceanic areas, it is concluded that a weakened temporal synchrony between the development of young euphausiids and the phytoplankton bloom influenced by recent climate warming may have led to the observed decrease in euphausiid populations.