Purpose The purpose of this paper is to address both the evolutionary and control aspects associated with the management of artificial superintelligence. Through empirical analysis, the authors examine the diffusion pattern of those high technologies that can be considered as forerunners to the adoption of artificial superintelligence (ASI). Design/methodology/approach The evolutionary perspective is divided into three parts, based on major developments in this area, namely, robotics, automation and artificial intelligence (AI). The authors then provide several dynamic models of the possible future evolution of superintelligence. These include diffusion modeling, predator–prey models and hostility models. The problem of control in superintelligence is reviewed next, where the authors discuss Asimov’s Laws and IEEE initiative. The authors also provide an empirical analysis of the application of diffusion modeling to three technologies from the industries of manufacturing, communication and energy, which can be considered as potential precursors to the evolution of the field of ASI. The authors conclude with a case study illustrating emerging solutions in the form of long-term social experiments to address the problem of control in superintelligence. Findings The results from the empirical analysis of the manufacturing, communication and energy sectors suggest that the technology diffusion model fits well with the data of robotics, telecom and solar installations till date. The results suggest a gradual diffusion process, like any other high technology. Thus, there appears to be no threat of “existential catastrophe” (Bostrom, 2014). The case study indicates that any future threat can be pre-empted by some long-term social measures. Originality/value This paper contributes to the emerging stream of artificial superintelligence. As humanity comes closer to grappling with the important question of the management and control of this technology for the future, it is important that modeling efforts be made to understand the extant perspective of the development of the high-technology diffusion. Presently, there are relatively few such efforts available in the literature.

Purpose Security and safety have remained important concerns for mankind since ancient times. In the context of railways, however, the threat perceptions to safety and security have increased significantly lately. In view of this, the Indian Railways requires an effective and efficient security management system. The purpose of this paper is to propose an integrated approach to help develop the Indian railway security system (IRSS) by successively reducing the complexity of the system through a series of studies. Design/methodology/approach The relevant elements of the complex system of Indian Railways have been identified. The framework in which the elements exist and interact with each other has been clearly established using the interpretive structural modelling (ISM) technique. The output of ISM is further reduced in complexity by having different policy option profiles. A comparison of different option profiles has been done by a multi-criteria decision-making technique, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), by choosing suitable criteria for comparison. Findings The following elements need to be pursued as the key objectives for making IRSS: protection of passengers, protection of property, modernisation, manpower enhancement, multi-skilling of staff, latest technology and enhanced legal powers. Research limitations/implications The present research can be extended in many important ways. Interpretive structural models for different contextual relationships can be developed and used for formulating and implementing customised security policy. Policy elements and the ISM structure obtained in this research can be utilised for the system dynamic modelling of IRSS. A pilot study can be done to implement the recommendations made in this study. Practical implications The ISM model developed can be implemented as a policy tool in enhancing the railway’s security. Some of the policy elements proposed appear to be consistent with the strategic direction being undertaken in the railway security in the country. Social implications Security is an important concern for mankind and social civilisations. The results have significant welfare implications in India and the rest of the world. Originality/value The present study is one of the first approaches in a series of studies in railway security in India. The results of this study can be extended to other security scenarios with similar needs.

Purpose Physical security has remained an important reason for, and the consequence of, societal living. In recent times, the threat potential and the risks of loss and damage due to criminal activities have increased substantially. In Indian Railways, it is being increasingly felt that efficient security management is inevitable for the development and sustainability of desired state of affairs. The purpose of this paper is to address the broad goal of achieving optimal strategies for minimizing security threats to Indian Railway Security System (IRSS). Design/methodology/approach The authors use two forecasting techniques, namely, Delphi technique and Harva method, whose joint approach allows the authors to use both quantifiable (Delphi technique) and linguistic (Harva method) data. The choice of the two approaches provides a multi-method approach to the research problem. Findings Predicted trend toward the expected scenario in 2020 has more or less matched with the actual developments for improvement in security scenario of Indian Railways. The positive indications are that there is an improving trend, which is expected to lead to a much better state of affairs with certain inputs. Research limitations/implications The joint approach of Delphi technique and Harva method is a multi-method example of original research work in the railway security, which can also be implemented in other security settings, such as aviation or marine security. A replication of the exercise closer to the target date will throw light on the exact state of affairs in the area of railway security in India. Practical implications An outcome in consonance with the present exercise has been the implementation of the policy developed on the basis of the forecasts. Policy efforts initiated in the recent past have been consistent with the features discussed in the study. From the above indicators, it can be inferred that some of the policy initiatives taken are in line with the trend status as predicted by the Delphi exercise. Social implications Security has been considered as an important reason, as well as a consequence, of living in a society. It has been perceived as the condition of being protected against danger or loss, and also refers to the freedom from exposure to danger (protection), implying a feeling of assurance against danger. Research work in this area, thus, has strong social welfare implications. This is particularly so as the area of security gained importance, not only in India, but also across the world. Originality/value The present study is the first of its kind in the area of railway security using systems approach. The approach used is quite generic and can also be implemented in other security settings, such as aviation or marine security.

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