To determine optimal future National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding levels, the longitudinal correlation of the level of investment in NIH research with population changes in the risk of specific diseases should be analyzed. This is because NIH research is the primary source of new therapies and treatments for major chronic diseases, many of which were viewed as relatively untreatable in the 1950s. NIH research is also important in developing preventative and screening strategies to support public health interventions. These correlations are examined 1938 to 2004 for 4 major chronic diseases [cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke, cancer, and diabetes] and the NIH institutes responsible for research for those diseases. This analysis shows consistent non-linear temporal correlations of funding to mortality rates across diseases. The economic implications of this are discussed assuming that improved health at later ages will allow projected declines in the rate of growth of the US labor force to be partly offset by a higher rate of labor force participation in the US elderly population due to reduced chronic disease risks and functional impairment.cancer ͉ heart disease ͉ longitudinal ͉ mortality

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The aging of the U.S. labor force will continue to at least 2034, when the largest of the baby boom cohorts reaches age 70. Thus, the average health and functional capacity of persons age 65؉ must improve for sufficient numbers of elderly persons to be physically and cognitively capable of work. This will require greater investments in research, public health, and health care. We examine how disability declines and improved health may increase human capital at later ages and stimulate the growth of gross domestic product and national wealth. disability declines ͉ National long term care survey

Health care is a crucial factor in US economic growth, because growing health care costs have made US corporations less competitive than their counterparts in countries where central governments assume most of those costs. In this paper we illustrate a second, possibly more powerful, effect of health care expenditures on the long term pace of US economic growth, i.e., that such investments in aging populations helps preserve human capital to later ages. In addition, as current investment in health care improves health and functional status, the future demand for health care as well as future health care costs will be constrained. These are crucial factors in countries experiencing rapid population aging. US labor force projections do not directly represent the effects of health care investment on the health of the future labor force, and federal health cost projections do not reflect the trajectory of health changes. Health dynamic projections suggest the effects of health care investment are large and growth stimulating. Projections done for the time period used by the Congressional Budget Office in budget mark-ups (2010 -2020) are presented in the supporting information.health care reform ͉ health forecasts I mprovement in the health component of human capital (1, 2) in the US population is reflected by increasing years of active life expectancy and improvements in population health and functioning at later ages (3). This higher quality of health capital improves well-being and increases labor productivity (4) which, viewed through extensions of the standard economic growth model (5) focusing on human capital, indicates an increased growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP).These dynamics, along with Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projections that the future labor force will have a bigger share of older workers (6), provide guidance to the allocation of current public stimulus funds and public health investment in the long run. The dynamics and projections suggest that both the number of elders in the labor force will be larger and the quality (productivity) of those elders will be higher than in the past.Because health capital measures reflecting changes occurring among US elders (e.g., declines in disability) are not currently incorporated in BLS projections those projections are likely biased, as are forecasts of health costs that do not make explicit the effects of health improvements. In this paper, the magnitude of that bias is estimated. This is important because pressure is increasing for fundamental reform of the US health care system because of the recent rate of increases in health care costs in both the private and public sectors. The primary argument made against making such reforms is the perceived cost of expanding and completing the population coverage of the US health care system. This is paradoxical from the perspective of economic growth theory in that the health care sector is one of the few economic activities which experienced growth in the evolving US economy. Problematic is the focu...