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The paper shows the expected changes in selected climatic indices on the basis of the results of dynamic downscaling for the 2041-2070 period with regard to the 1971-2000 period in the Polish territory. Results of the EURO CORDEX simulations with a resolution of 50 km and 12.5 km and regional models HIRHAM5, RACMO22E and the RCA4 driven by EC EARTH global climate model and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used. The maps showing absolute differences in the following climatic indices: number of frost days, ice days, summer days, wet days and days with precipitation exceeding 10 and 20 mm, between the values obtained in the scenarios and the values obtained for the reference period have been analysed. All the model results show an increase in the global temperature resulting in a decrease in the number of frost and ice days and an increase in the number of summer days. The models also show an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation. Despite general similarities between the results of the simulations, some differences are evident, mainly due to model-specific setup.

Potential effect of future climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland. Future projections of selected climate indices have been used to assess potential effects of climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland. CMIP5 global climate models’ results for the future period (2006-2035) and historical one (1981-2010) are used in the study. Models predict decrease in count of days with extreme low temperatures and increase in count of days with extreme high temperatures. An increase in the number of days with very heavy precipitation is also predicted. Not all climate change effects have negative impact on crop productivity in Poland but all of them confirm requirements to put into practice mitigation and adaptation strategies for Poland’s agriculture.