There is concern among public health professionals that the current economic downturn, initiated by the financial crisis that started in 2007, could precipitate the transmission of infectious diseases while also limiting capacity for control. Although studies have reviewed the potential effects of economic downturns on overall health, to our knowledge such an analysis has yet to be done focusing on infectious diseases. We performed a systematic literature review of studies examining changes in infectious disease burden subsequent to periods of crisis. The review identified 230 studies of which 37 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 30 found evidence of worse infectious disease outcomes during recession, often resulting from higher rates of infectious contact under poorer living circumstances, worsened access to therapy, or poorer retention in treatment. The remaining studies found either reductions in infectious disease or no significant effect. Using the paradigm of the “SIR” (susceptible-infected-recovered) model of infectious disease transmission, we examined the implications of these findings for infectious disease transmission and control. Key susceptible groups include infants and the elderly. We identified certain high-risk groups, including migrants, homeless persons, and prison populations, as particularly vulnerable conduits of epidemics during situations of economic duress. We also observed that the long-term impacts of crises on infectious disease are not inevitable: considerable evidence suggests that the magnitude of effect depends critically on budgetary responses by governments. Like other emergencies and natural disasters, preparedness for financial crises should include consideration of consequences for communicable disease control.

BackgroundClinician-assigned New York Heart Association (NYHA) class is an established predictor of outcomes in heart failure. This study aims to test whether patients' self-assessment of functional status by NYHA class predicts hospital admissions, quality of life, and mortality.Methods and ResultsThis was an observational study within a randomized controlled trial. A total of 293 adult patients diagnosed with heart failure were recruited after an emergency admission at 3 acute hospitals in Norfolk, UK. Outcome measures included number of emergency admissions over 6 months, self-assessed quality of life measured with the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure questionnaire (MLHFQ) and EQ-5D at 6 months, and deaths up to 20 months' follow-up. Patients were grouped into 3 NYHA groups (I/II, III, and IV) based on patients' self-assigned NYHA class (SA-NYHA). A Poisson model indicated an increased readmission rate associated with higher SA-NYHA class (adjusted rate ratio 1.21; 95% CI 1.04–1.41; P = .02). Higher SA-NYHA class at baseline predicted worse quality of life at 6 months' follow-up (P = .002 for MLHFQ; P = .047 for EQ-5D), and was associated with higher mortality rate (adjusted hazard ratio 1.84; 95% CI 1.10–3.06; P = .02).ConclusionsSA-NYHA class is predictive of hospitalization, quality of life, and mortality among patients with heart failure.

Background: Despite the attention the situation of the Roma in Central and Eastern Europe has received in the context of European Union enlargement, research on their access to health services is very limited, in particular with regard to child health services.

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Please cite only the published version using the reference above.See http://opus.bath.ac.uk/ for usage policies.Please scroll down to view the document.i Paper title:Change in tobacco excise policy in Bulgaria: the role of tobacco industry lobbying and smuggling Authors:Skafida, V (1); Silver, K E (2); Rechel, B P D (3); Gilmore, A (4) AcknowledgementsThe authors would like to thank Katherine Smith and Simon Williams for conducting initial exploratory searches for the report, and Cathy Flower for her administrative support.