While the effect of capital movements on exchange rates is a widely accepted relationship in the relevant literature, there are also findings suggesting that reverse relationships may be valid. Especially in the analysis of the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), this issue has started to be discussed more in the literature. In this study, the causality relations between exchange rates and FDI are analyzed within the scope of Turkey example with data covering the period 2005-2021. Causality relationships between variables were investigated by Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test. The data used for empirical analysis were obtained from the CBRT-EVDS database. According to the findings obtained from the asymmetric causality test, while the causality relationship from real effective exchange rate to FDI was determined, causality relationship from FDI to real effective exchange rate could not be determined. In terms of the results obtained, it is thought that internal dynamics may be more effective on the basis of this exceptional process between the real exchange rate and FDI in the Turkish economy. While the instability in the value of the currency makes it difficult to make long-term investment decisions such as FDI, it also causes the investment volume to decrease. As a matter of fact, in the relevant literature, the importance of institutional factors is frequently emphasized among the determinants of FDI for Turkey. Therefore, it is seen that Turkey's ability to establish a stable national currency is one of the prerequisites for attracting more FDI and it should increase its steps to strengthen institutional factors.
McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) argue that financial liberalization practices in developing countries will stimulate domestic savings accumulation by raising interest rates, and the funds created will be a driving force for economic growth by financing the necessary investments. According to this hypothesis, known as the McKinnon's complementarity hypothesis in the literature, money is basically seen as a necessary tool for capital formation and the existence of a complementarity relationship between money demand and physical capital formation is emphasized. Our study, the relationship between real interest rates, demand for real money and the real physical investment by testing for Turkey investigates the validity of the hypothesis of complementarity. The study ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Test) test approach is used and Turkey Economy 2005: Q4-2019:Q4 period with quarterly data analysis is performed. In our study, unlike the relevant literature, Fourier ADF unit root test with non-linear structural break was used as well as standard unit root tests. ARDL bounds test analysis results; It indicates that there are negative and statistically significant relationships between real money demand and the ratio of investments to income and real deposit interest rate in the long run. When the short-term results are evaluated, it is seen that although there is a negative relationship between money demand variable and real deposit interest rates, there is no statistically significant relationship between real money demand and investment rate variables. In addition, while there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between the investment-to-income variable and real deposit interest rates in the long run, it is observed that this relationship is not valid in the short run. Considered together with findings obtained from the study of complementarity hypothesis in the case of Turkey the economy has reached the conclusion that partially valid
When the empirical studies in the literature on inflation and interest relation are examined, it can be seen that a positive or negative change in one of these two variables has a significant effect on the other variable. This situation reveals the necessity of evaluating the relationship between variables within the framework of cause and effect. In this study, the relationship between inflation, interest rates, showing similar macroeconomic structures Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil the country for the period 1985-2018 using annual data sets separately for each country were explained by the VAR model. The results showed only right way for Turkey to reciprocate the nominal rate of inflation variables for Indonesia and Brazil were found bidirectional causality between countries.
The export-oriented growth hypothesis has been examined many times, and there has been an extensive literature on this subject, mainly in the Far East Countries, with generally supportive results. In the relevant literature, it is seen that there are very limited researches in the Central and Eastern European countries, which switched to a free market economy in the 1990s and generally followed the policies aimed at export-oriented growth since the 2000s. In this study, export and economic growth data for the period 2010M01-2018M08 for 11 selected Central and Eastern European countries are used and investigated within the export and economic growth relations framework with Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) and Hatemi-J (2011) panel causality analysis. Our analysis results reveal that the export-based growth or growth-based export phenomena differ between countries depending on the export and growth potential of the countries. In addition to this result, the data obtained indicate that economic growth also has positively affects on exports. The existence of this interactive relationship between exports and economic growth based on a feedback event has been supported by both Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) and Hatemi-J (2011) causality analyzes.
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