After the 2008 World Crisis, there is a view that the economic recovery has not been adequate. In this context, the debate on hysteresis and especially investment hysteresis has increased in the last decade. The aim of this study is to analyze the investment hysteresis and the basic dynamics of hysteresis in the Turkish economy. Structural break tests are used to identify hysteresis. Traditional and asymmetric causality tests are used to identify the fundamental dynamics of hysteresis. Investment, GDP, interest rate, and productivity variables are used to analyze investment hysteresis. Structural break tests were applied to the variables, while conventional and asymmetric causality tests were applied between investments and their determinants. Structural break tests prove the existence of hysteresis. According to the Granger causality test, there is no causality from interest rates, GDP and productivity to investments. The fact that interest rates have no effect on investments proves hysteresis. According to the asymmetric causality test, there is no relationship between interest rates and investments. There is an inverse relationship between GDP and investments. There is an asymmetric relationship between productivity and investments. The fact that productivity shocks cause asymmetric effects on investments makes productivity shocks the main dynamic of hysteresis. In addition, there is considerable evidence that the strong hysteresis and high uncertainty of TFP exacerbate investment hysteresis. Therefore, productivity shocks should be taken into account in policymaking for hysteresis.

While the effect of capital movements on exchange rates is a widely accepted relationship in the relevant literature, there are also findings suggesting that reverse relationships may be valid. Especially in the analysis of the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), this issue has started to be discussed more in the literature. In this study, the causality relations between exchange rates and FDI are analyzed within the scope of Turkey example with data covering the period 2005-2021. Causality relationships between variables were investigated by Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test. The data used for empirical analysis were obtained from the CBRT-EVDS database. According to the findings obtained from the asymmetric causality test, while the causality relationship from real effective exchange rate to FDI was determined, causality relationship from FDI to real effective exchange rate could not be determined. In terms of the results obtained, it is thought that internal dynamics may be more effective on the basis of this exceptional process between the real exchange rate and FDI in the Turkish economy. While the instability in the value of the currency makes it difficult to make long-term investment decisions such as FDI, it also causes the investment volume to decrease. As a matter of fact, in the relevant literature, the importance of institutional factors is frequently emphasized among the determinants of FDI for Turkey. Therefore, it is seen that Turkey's ability to establish a stable national currency is one of the prerequisites for attracting more FDI and it should increase its steps to strengthen institutional factors.

Bu çalışmada talep-çekmeli ve maliyet-itmeli enflasyon olarak temel iki yapı sergileyen enflasyon Türkiye ekonomisi için analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisi enflasyon dinamiklerinin değişkenlik gösterebileceğinden hareketle enflasyondaki yapısal kırılma dikkate alınarak çalışmanın ampirik yaklaşımı geliştirilmiştir. Enflasyondaki yapısal kırılmayla birlikte enflasyon dinamiklerinin değişkenlik gösterdiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Türkiye ekonomisi açısından yerli paranın değerli olduğu dönemde talep-çekmeli enflasyon yaşanırken yerli paranın nispi olarak değersizleştiği dönemde fiyat geçiş etkisiyle maliyet-itmeli enflasyonun yaşandığı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Ampirik bulgular yapısal kırılma sonrasında Türkiye ekonomisinde para arzının enflasyona sebep olmadığı bir yapıya işaret etmektedir. Bu durum yüksek enflasyon dönemlerinde alt gelir gurubundan yüksek gelir gurubuna servet aktarımıyla gelir dağılımı adaletsizliğinin derinleşmesiyle mümkün hale gelen bir yapısal duruma kanıt oluşturmaktadır. Ayrıca enflasyon ile enflasyon dinamikleri arasındaki asimetrik ilişkiler Türkiye ekonomisindeki enflasyon ataletini de açıklamaktadır.

Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri içerisinde önemli bir konuma sahip olan ve 2010 yılı itibariyle uygulamaya koyduğu Yeni Ekonomi Model (NEM) ile yaklaşık olarak kırk yıldır sürdürmekte olduğu İhracata Dayalı Büyüme modeli uygulamalarını güçlendirmeyi hedefleyen Malezya ekonomisi, bu çalışmanın araştırma konusunu oluşturmaktadır. NEM uygulamaları Malezya ekonomisinin yenilik üretme kapasitesini artırmaya ve desteklemeye yönelik ilave politikalarla zayıflama işaretleri gösteren ihracata dayalı büyüme sürecini yeniden hızlandırma ve bir üst uygulamaya dönüştürmeyi hedeflemektedir. Malezya ekonomisinde yaşanan gelişmeler, gerek kendisi gerekse benzeri modelleri uygulayan diğer ülkeler için de büyük önem taşımaktadır. Çalışmada 1960-2019 dönemleri ele alınarak, ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geçerli olup olmadığı sınanmıştır. Yapılan Eş bütünleşme testi sonucunda, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki olduğu tespit edilirken, nedensellik analizinin sonuçları; Malezya'da ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geçerliliğini ortaya koymaktadır.

There is a wide literature that temporary shocks in real exchange rates and volatility will cause structural breaks in foreign trade. As a result of temporary shocks in real exchange rates, the real exchange rate elasticity of imports decreases. The decrease in the sensitivity of the import volume to real exchange rates and the failure to return to its former levels after the temporary shock is expressed as the hysteresis situation. In case the exchange rates return to their previous levels after the temporary shock, the main dynamic of hysteresis is that the firms exhibit the behavior of staying in the market due to sunk costs. In the study, foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy were analyzed for the period 2003Q1-2021Q2 by using the asymmetry hypothesis in order to test the hysteresis effects. According to the findings obtained from the asymmetry hypothesis, the absence of a decrease in the import volume during the period of depreciation of the domestic currency indicates the existence of the hysteresis effect. The fact that the firms exhibited the behavior of staying in the market in exchange rate depreciation in the Turkish economy means that sunk costs are extremely effective in hysteresis. Based on this information, as a solution to the hysteresis effects in foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy at the point of policymaking, reducing the sunk costs in market entry to reasonable levels and ensuring stability in exchange rates come to the fore as suggestions in terms of hysteresis.