Global change includes a substantial increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme high temperatures (EHTs), which influence insects at almost all levels. The number of studies showing the ecological importance of EHTs has risen in recent years, but the knowledge is rather dispersed in the contemporary literature. In this article, we review the biological and ecological effects of EHTs actually experienced in the field, i.e., when coupled to fluctuating thermal regimes. First, we characterize EHTs in the field. Then, we summarize the impacts of EHTs on insects at various levels and the processes allowing insects to buffer EHTs. Finally, we argue that the mechanisms leading to positive or negative impacts of EHTs on insects can only be resolved from integrative approaches considering natural thermal regimes. Thermal extremes, perhaps more than the gradual increase in mean temperature, drive insect responses to climate change, with crucial impacts on pest management and biodiversity conservation. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Entomology, Volume 66 is January 11, 2020. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are predicted to increase under future climate change. Despite recent advancements, we still lack a detailed understanding of how changes in the frequency and amplitude of extreme climate events are linked to the temporal and spatial structure of natural communities. To answer this question, we used a combination of laboratory experiments, field experiments, and analysis of multi-year field observations to reveal the effects of extreme high temperature events on the demographic rates and relative dominance of three co-occurrence aphid species which differ in their transmission efficiency of different agricultural pathogens. We then linked the geographical shift in their relative dominance to frequent extreme high temperatures through a meta-analysis. We found that both frequency and amplitude of extreme high temperatures altered demographic rates of species. However, these effects were species-specific. Increasing the frequency and amplitude of extreme temperature events altered which species had the highest fitness. Importantly, this change in relative fitness of species was consistent with significant changes in the relative dominance of species in natural communities in a 1 year long field heating experiment and 6 year long field survey of natural populations. Finally, at a global spatial scale, we found the same relationship between relative abundance of species and frequency of extreme temperatures. Together, our results indicate that changes in frequency and amplitude of extreme high temperatures can alter the temporal and spatial structure of natural communities, and that these changes are driven by asymmetric effects of high temperatures on the demographic rates and fitness of species. They also highlight the importance of understanding how extreme events affect the life-history of species for predicting the impacts of climate change at the individual and community level, and emphasize the importance of using a broad range of approaches when studying climate change.
Summary1. An asymmetric increase in night-time temperatures (NTs) on hot days is one of the main features of global climate change. But the biological effects of an increased night-time temperature combined with high daytime temperature are unclear. 2. We used six thermal regimens to simulate NTs on hot days and investigated the effects of night warming on life-history traits of the English grain aphid Sitobion avenae. Experimental temperatures fluctuated in continuous diurnal cycles, increasing from 27°C to a maximum 35°C and then declining to 27°C gradually before further dropping to different minima (13, 16, 19, 21, 23 or 25°C) representing NTs. 3. When compared to expectations based on constant temperatures, night warming raised the optimum temperature for development by 3°C, in contrast to results from experiments where temperature variability was altered symmetrically or in a parallel manner. Night warming also reduced aphid survival under heat from 75% to 37% and depressed adult performance by up to 50%. Overall, night warming exacerbated the detrimental effects of hot days on the intrinsic rate of population increase, which was predicted to drop by 30% when night-time minimum temperatures exceeded 20°C. 4. Our novel findings on development challenge the 'Kaufmann effect', suggesting this is inapplicable to night warming likely to be encountered in nature. Although many average temperature models predict increasing pest outbreaks, our results suggest that outbreaks of some species might decrease due to the effects of night warming on population dynamics.
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