Despite decades of work on climate change biology, the scientific community remains uncertain about where and when most species distributions will respond to altered climates. A major barrier is the spatial mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled. Using a meta-analysis of published literature, we show that grid lengths in species distribution models are, on average, ca. 10 000-fold larger than the animals they study, and ca. 1000-fold larger than the plants they study. And the gap is even worse than these ratios indicate, as most work has focused on organisms that are significantly biased toward large size. This mismatch is problematic because organisms do not experience climate on coarse scales. Rather, they live in microclimates, which can be highly heterogeneous and strongly divergent from surrounding macroclimates. Bridging the spatial gap should be a high priority for research and will require gathering climate data at finer scales, developing better methods for downscaling environmental data to microclimates, and improving our statistical understanding of variation at finer scales. Interdisciplinary collaborations (including ecologists, engineers, climatologists, meteorologists, statisticians, and geographers) will be key to bridging the gap, and ultimately to providing scientifically grounded data and recommendations to conservation biologists and policy makers.

We analyze the effects of changing patterns of thermal availability, in space and time, on the performance of small ectotherms. We approach this problem by breaking it into a series of smaller steps, focusing on: (1) how macroclimates interact with living and nonliving objects in the environment to produce a mosaic of thermal microclimates and (2) how mobile ectotherms filter those microclimates into realized body temperatures by moving around in them. Although the first step (generation of mosaics) is conceptually straightforward, there still exists no general framework for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of microclimatic variation. We organize potential variation along three axes-the nature of the objects producing the microclimates (abiotic versus biotic), how microclimates translate macroclimatic variation (amplify versus buffer), and the temporal and spatial scales over which microclimatic conditions vary (long versus short). From this organization, we propose several general rules about patterns of microclimatic diversity. To examine the second step (behavioral sampling of locally available microclimates), we construct a set of models that simulate ectotherms moving on a thermal landscape according to simple sets of diffusion-based rules. The models explore the effects of both changes in body size (which affect the time scale over which organisms integrate operative body temperatures) and increases in the mean and variance of temperature on the thermal landscape. Collectively, the models indicate that both simple behavioral rules and interactions between body size and spatial patterns of thermal variation can profoundly affect the distribution of realized body temperatures experienced by ectotherms. These analyses emphasize the rich set of problems still to solve before arriving at a general, predictive theory of the biological consequences of climate change.

Global change includes a substantial increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme high temperatures (EHTs), which influence insects at almost all levels. The number of studies showing the ecological importance of EHTs has risen in recent years, but the knowledge is rather dispersed in the contemporary literature. In this article, we review the biological and ecological effects of EHTs actually experienced in the field, i.e., when coupled to fluctuating thermal regimes. First, we characterize EHTs in the field. Then, we summarize the impacts of EHTs on insects at various levels and the processes allowing insects to buffer EHTs. Finally, we argue that the mechanisms leading to positive or negative impacts of EHTs on insects can only be resolved from integrative approaches considering natural thermal regimes. Thermal extremes, perhaps more than the gradual increase in mean temperature, drive insect responses to climate change, with crucial impacts on pest management and biodiversity conservation. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Entomology, Volume 66 is January 11, 2020. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.