Despite decades of work on climate change biology, the scientific community remains uncertain about where and when most species distributions will respond to altered climates. A major barrier is the spatial mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled. Using a meta-analysis of published literature, we show that grid lengths in species distribution models are, on average, ca. 10 000-fold larger than the animals they study, and ca. 1000-fold larger than the plants they study. And the gap is even worse than these ratios indicate, as most work has focused on organisms that are significantly biased toward large size. This mismatch is problematic because organisms do not experience climate on coarse scales. Rather, they live in microclimates, which can be highly heterogeneous and strongly divergent from surrounding macroclimates. Bridging the spatial gap should be a high priority for research and will require gathering climate data at finer scales, developing better methods for downscaling environmental data to microclimates, and improving our statistical understanding of variation at finer scales. Interdisciplinary collaborations (including ecologists, engineers, climatologists, meteorologists, statisticians, and geographers) will be key to bridging the gap, and ultimately to providing scientifically grounded data and recommendations to conservation biologists and policy makers.

Many organisms have complex life cycles with distinct life stages that experience different environmental conditions. How does the complexity of life cycles affect the ecological and evolutionary responses of organisms to climate change? We address this question by exploring several recent case studies and synthetic analyses of insects. First, different life stages may inhabit different microhabitats, and may differ in their thermal sensitivities and other traits that are important for responses to climate. For example, the life stages of Manduca experience different patterns of thermal and hydric variability, and differ in tolerance to high temperatures. Second, life stages may differ in their mechanisms for adaptation to local climatic conditions. For example, in Colias, larvae in different geographic populations and species adapt to local climate via differences in optimal and maximal temperatures for feeding and growth, whereas adults adapt via differences in melanin of the wings and in other morphological traits. Third, we extend a recent analysis of the temperature-dependence of insect population growth to demonstrate how changes in temperature can differently impact juvenile survival and adult reproduction. In both temperate and tropical regions, high rates of adult reproduction in a given environment may not be realized if occasional, high temperatures prevent survival to maturity. This suggests that considering the differing responses of multiple life stages is essential to understand the ecological and evolutionary consequences of climate change.

Summary 1.Temperature strongly affects virtually all biological rate processes, including many central to organismal fitness such as growth rate. A second factor related to growth rate is organismal chemical composition, especially C : N : P stoichiometry. This association arises because high rates of growth require disproportionate investment in N-and P-rich biosynthetic cellular structures. Here the extent to which these factors interact is examined -does acclimation temperature systematically affect organismal chemical composition? 2. A literature survey indicates that cold-acclimated poikilotherms contain on average 30-50% more nitrogen [N], phosphorus [P], protein and RNA than warm-exposed conspecifics. The primary exception was bacteria, which showed increases in RNA content but no change in protein content at cold temperatures. 3. Two processes -changes in nutrient content (or concentration) and in organism size -contribute to the overall result. Although qualitatively distinct, both kinds of change lead to increased total catalytic capacity in cold-exposed organisms. 4. Temperature-driven shifts in nutrient content of organisms are likely to resonate in diverse ecological patterns and processes, including latitudinal and altitudinal patterns of nutrient content, foraging decisions by organisms living in strong temperature gradients, and patterns of biodiversity.

We analyze the effects of changing patterns of thermal availability, in space and time, on the performance of small ectotherms. We approach this problem by breaking it into a series of smaller steps, focusing on: (1) how macroclimates interact with living and nonliving objects in the environment to produce a mosaic of thermal microclimates and (2) how mobile ectotherms filter those microclimates into realized body temperatures by moving around in them. Although the first step (generation of mosaics) is conceptually straightforward, there still exists no general framework for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of microclimatic variation. We organize potential variation along three axes-the nature of the objects producing the microclimates (abiotic versus biotic), how microclimates translate macroclimatic variation (amplify versus buffer), and the temporal and spatial scales over which microclimatic conditions vary (long versus short). From this organization, we propose several general rules about patterns of microclimatic diversity. To examine the second step (behavioral sampling of locally available microclimates), we construct a set of models that simulate ectotherms moving on a thermal landscape according to simple sets of diffusion-based rules. The models explore the effects of both changes in body size (which affect the time scale over which organisms integrate operative body temperatures) and increases in the mean and variance of temperature on the thermal landscape. Collectively, the models indicate that both simple behavioral rules and interactions between body size and spatial patterns of thermal variation can profoundly affect the distribution of realized body temperatures experienced by ectotherms. These analyses emphasize the rich set of problems still to solve before arriving at a general, predictive theory of the biological consequences of climate change.