Abstract. This paper describes the first major attempt to compare seven different inverse approaches for identifying aquifer transmissivity. The ultimate objective was to determine which of several geostatistical inverse techniques is better suited for making probabilistic forecasts of the potential transport of solutes in an aquifer where spatial variability and uncertainty in hydrogeologic properties are significant. Seven geostatistical methods (fast Fourier transform (FF), fractal simulation (FS), linearized cokriging (LC), linearized semianalytical (LS), maximum likelihood (ML), pilot point (PP), and sequential self-calibration (SS)) were compared on four synthetic data sets. Each data set had specific features meeting (or not) classical assumptions about stationarity, amenability to a geostatistical description, etc. The comparison of the outcome of the methods is based on the prediction of travel times and travel paths taken by conservative solutes migrating in the aquifer for a distance of 5 km. Four of the methods, LS, ML, PP, and SS, were identified as being approximately equivalent for the specific problems considered. The magnitude of the variance of the transmissivity fields, which went as high as 10 times the generally accepted range for linearized approaches, was not a problem for the linearized methods when applied to stationary fields; that is, their inverse solutions and travel time predictions were as accurate as those of the nonlinear methods. Nonstationarity of the "true" transmissivity field, or the presence of "anomalies" such as high-permeability fracture zones was, however, more of a problem for the linearized methods. The importance of the proper selection of the semivariogram of the 1og•0 (T) field (or the ability of the method to optimize this variogram iteratively) was found to have a significant impact on the accuracy and precision of the travel time predictions. Use of additional transient information from pumping tests did not result in major changes in the outcome. While the methods differ in their underlying theory, and the codes developed to implement the theories were limited to varying degrees, the most important factor for achieving a successful solution was the time and experience devoted by the user of the method. •2Stanford University, Stanford, California.•3Duke Engineering and Services, Inc., Austin, Texas.•4University of Arizona, Tucson.•Slnstitut Franqais du Pftrole, Rueil-Malmaison, France.•6University of California, Berkeley.Copyright 1998 by the American Geophysical Union. Paper number 98WR00003.0043-1397/98/98WR-00003509.00 tion, or performance assessment of planned waste disposal projects, it is no longer enough to determine the "best estimate" of the distribution in space of the aquifer parameters. A measure of the uncertainty associated with this estimation is also needed. Geostatistical techniques are ideally suited to filling this role. Basically, geostatistics fits a "structural model" to the data, reflecting their spatial variability. Then, both "best estim...

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Intermediate depth disposal operations were conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) at the DOE's Nevada Test Site (NTS) from 1984 through 1989. These operations emplaced highspecific activity low-level wastes (LLW) and limited quantities of classified, "special case" transuranic (TRU) wastes in 37 m (120-ft) deep, 3 m (10 ft) diameter Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) boreholes.Four boreholes contain about 60,000 kg (132,000 lb.) of classified TRU waste packages, containing less than 330 curies of Plutonium-239. All of the TRU wastes emplaced in the GCD boreholes are classified for national security reasons and cannot be disposed of in the DOE's Waste Isolation Pilot Plant.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) 40 CFR 191 defines the requirements for protection of human health from disposed TRU wastes. This EPA standard sets a number of requirements, including probabilistic limits on the cumulative releases of radionuclides to the accessible environment for 10,000 years. This report presents the performance assessment (PA) that has been conducted to determine if disposal of TRU waste in the GCD boreholes complies with the EPA's 40 CFR 191 requirements.Sandia National Laboratories completed this PA using all available information and an Iterative PA Methodology, which focused work on uncertainty reduction in a cost-effective fashion that does not overestimate system performance and assured defensibility. The simplicity of the conceptual models of the GCD disposal system allowed them to be implemented in Microsoft ® Visual Basic™ macros in an Access™ database. This PA model is built from a mathematical expression for mass conservation that includes the operation of a number of transport processes, including dissolution, precipitation, reversible chemical sorption onto soil, advection, diffusion, dispersion, radioactive decay and ingrowth, plant uptake, and bioturbation. The mathematical model and implementing code was used to calculate a complementary cumulative distribution function of integrated normalized release to the accessible environment for 10,000 years and probability distributions of dose based on two exposure conditions for the 1,000 year individual protection requirements.The primary conclusions of this PA are that the disposal of TRU wastes in the GCD boreholes will, at most, result in minuscule doses to individuals, and that the GCD disposal system easily meets the EPA's 1985, 40 CFR 191 requirements for disposal of TRU waste. Further, there is a strong, reasonable expectation that actual system performance will be better than what is simulated in this PA.vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

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