Frequencies of stable chromosome aberrations from more than 3,000 atomic bomb survivors were used to examine the nature of the radiation dose response. The end point was the proportion of cells with at least one translocation or inversion detected in Giemsa-stained cultures of approximately 100 lymphocytes per person. The statistical methods allow for both imprecision of individual dose estimates and extra-binomial variation. A highly significant and nonlinear dose response was seen. The shape of the dose response was concave upward for doses below 1.5 Sv but exhibited some leveling off at higher doses. This curvature was similar for the two cities, with a crossover dose (i.e. the ratio of the linear coefficient to the quadratic coefficient) of 1.7 Sv (95% CI 0.9, 4). The low-dose slopes for the two cities differed significantly: 6.6% per Sv (95% CI 5.5, 8.4) in Hiroshima and 3.7% (95% CI 2.6, 4.9) in Nagasaki. This difference was reduced considerably, but not eliminated, when the comparison was limited to people who were exposed in houses or tenements. Nagasaki survivors exposed in factories, as well as people in either city who were outside with little or no shielding, had a lower dose response than those exposed in houses. This suggests that doses for Nagasaki factory worker survivors may be overestimated by the DS86, apparently by about 60%. Even though factory workers constitute about 20% of Nagasaki survivors with dose estimates in the range of 0.5 to 2 Sv, calculations indicate that the dosimetry problems for these people have little impact on cancer risk estimates for Nagasaki.

Dosimetric measurement error is known to potentially bias the magnitude of the dose response, and can also affect the shape of dose response. In this report, generalized relative and absolute rate models are fitted to the latest Japanese atomic bomb survivor solid cancer, leukemia and circulatory disease mortality data (followed from 1950 through 2003), with the latest (DS02R1) dosimetry, using Bayesian techniques to adjust for errors in dose estimates and assessing other model uncertainties. Linear-quadratic models are fitted and used to assess lifetime mortality risks for contemporary UK, USA, French, Russian, Japanese and Chinese populations. For a test dose of 0.1 Gy absorbed dose weighted by neutron relative biological effectiveness, solid cancer, leukemia and circulatory disease mortality risks for a UK population using a generalized linearquadratic relative rate model were estimated to be 3.88% Gy −1 [95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI): 1.17, 6.97], 0.35% Gy −1 (95% BCI: −0.03, 0.78) and 2.24% Gy −1 (95% BCI: −0.17, 13.76), respectively. Using a generalized absolute rate linear-quadratic model at 0.1 Gy, the lifetime risks for these three end points were estimated to be 3.56% Gy −1 (95% BCI: 0.54, 6.78), 0.41% Gy −1 (95% BCI: 0.01, 0.86) and 1.56% Gy −1 (95% BCI: −1.10, 7.21), respectively. There was substantial evidence of curvature for solid cancer (in particular, the group of solid cancers excluding lung, breast and stomach cancers) and leukemia, so that for solid cancer and leukemia, estimates of excess risk per unit dose were nearly doubled by increasing the dose from 0.01 to 1.0

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has updated its assessment of health risks from indoor radon, which has been determined to be the second leading cause of lung cancer after cigarette smoking. This risk assessment is based primarily on results from a recent study of radon health effects (BEIR VI) by the National Academy of Sciences. In BEIR VI, the National Academy of Sciences fit empirical risk models to data from 11 cohorts of miners, and estimated that each year about 20,000 lung cancer deaths in the U.S. are radon related. A summary, abstracted from the technical report, is given of the EPA's risk assessment results and methods, including some modifications and extensions to the approach used in BEIR VI. Results include numerical estimates of lung cancer deaths per unit exposure, which had not been provided in BEIR VI.

Pawel, D. J., Preston, D. L., Pierce, D. A. and Cologne, J. B. Improved Estimates of Cancer Site-Specific Risks for A-Bomb Survivors. Radiat. Res. 169, 87-98 (2008). Simple methods are investigated for improving summary site-specific radiogenic risk estimates. Estimates in this report are derived from cancer incidence data from the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of A-bomb survivors that are followed up by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF). Estimates from the LSS of excess relative risk (ERR) for solid cancer sites have typically been derived separately for each site. Even though the data for this are extensive, the statistical imprecision in site-specific (organ-specific) risk estimates is substantial, and it is clear that a large portion of the site-specific variation in estimates is due to this imprecision. Empirical Bayes (EB) estimates offer a reasonable approach for moderating this variation. The simple version of EB estimates that we applied to the LSS data are weighted averages of a pooled overall estimate of ERR and separately derived site-specific estimates, with weights determined by the data. Results indicate that the EB estimates are most useful for sites such as esophageal or bladder cancer, for which the separately derived ERR estimates are less precise than for other sites.