BackgroundThe establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the relationship between global warming and establishment rate of invasive alien species, especially for poikilothermic invaders such as insects.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe present data that demonstrate a significant positive relationship between the change in average annual surface air temperature and the establishment rate of invasive alien insects in mainland China during 1900–2005. This relationship was modeled by regression analysis, and indicated that a 1°C increase in average annual surface temperature in mainland China was associated with an increase in the establishment rate of invasive alien insects of about 0.5 species year−1. The relationship between rising surface air temperature and increasing establishment rate remained significant even after accounting for increases in international trade during the period 1950–2005. Moreover, similar relationships were detected using additional data from the United Kingdom and the contiguous United States.Conclusions/SignificanceThese findings suggest that the perceived increase in establishments of invasive alien insects can be explained only in part by an increase in introduction rate or propagule pressure. Besides increasing propagule pressure, global warming is another driver that could favor worldwide bioinvasions. Our study highlights the need to consider global warming when designing strategies and policies to deal with bioinvasions.

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BackgroundThe unintentional transport of species as a result of human activities has reached unprecedented rates. Once established, introduced species can be nearly impossible to eradicate. It is therefore essential to identify and monitor locations where invaders are most likely to establish new populations. Despite the obvious value of early detection, how does an agency identify areas that are most vulnerable to new invaders? Here we propose a novel approach by using the “first detection location” (FDL) of introduced species in China to quantify characteristics of areas where introduced species are first reported.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe obtained FDLs for 166 species (primarily agricultural and forestry pests) that were unintentionally introduced into China prior to 2008 from literature searches. The spatial pattern and determinants of FDLs were examined at the provincial level. The spatial pattern of FDLs varied among provinces with more commerce and trade and economically developed provinces in coastal regions having more FDLs than interior provinces. For example, 74.6% of FDLs were distributed in coastal regions despite that they only cover 15.6% of the total area in China. Variables that may be indicators of “introduction pressure” (e.g. the amount of received commerce) had an overwhelming effect on the number of FDLs in each province (R 2 = 0.760).Conclusions/SignificanceOur results suggest that “introduction pressure” may be one of the most important factors that determine the locations where newly-introduced species are first detected, and that open and developed provinces in China should be prioritized when developing monitoring programs that focus on locating and managing new introductions. Our study illustrates that FDL approaches can contribute to the study and management of biological invasions not only for China but also for elsewhere.