SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations.MethodsWe used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.FindingsIn 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). I...

In Kenya, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) account for 27% of all deaths. Adult Kenyans have an 18% chance of dying prematurely from cancers, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases or chronic respiratory diseases. A Novartis Access Initiative is making medicines available to treat cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, and breast cancer in 30 countries, including Kenya. Little is known about patients’ perceptions of access to medicines for NCDs in Kenya. The study objective was to understand patients’ perceptions of access to medicines; as well as barriers and facilitators at the household, community, and healthcare system level. A baseline qualitative study was conducted in eight of 47 counties as part of an evaluation of the Novartis Access Initiative in Kenya. The 84 patients interviewed through a household survey had been diagnosed and treated for an NCD. Although medicines at government facilities were free or cheaper than those sold in private pharmacies, the availability of medicines presented a constant challenge. Patients often resorted to private pharmacies, where NCD medicines cost more than at public facilities. Participants with an NCD took their health seriously and strove to get the medicines, even under difficult circumstances. Buying NCD medicines put a strain on the household budget, especially for the lower-income participants. Some actions to overcome affordability barriers included: borrowing money, selling assets, seeking help from relatives, taking on extra work, buying partial dosages, leaving without the medicines, or resorting to non-medical alternatives. In conclusion, access to NCD medicines is a major challenge for most adults in Kenya. As a result, they engage in complex interactions between public, private facilities and pharmacies to overcome the barriers. The government should ensure well-stocked public sector pharmacies and subsidize prices of medicines for lower-income patients. Integration of industry-led access to medicine programs may help governments to obtain low cost supplies.

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